January 2005 Archives

January 2005, which ended at midnight last night, failed to produce a single official 0° reading. Only 30 other Januarys in the city over the past 135 years have done that! Despite the month’s 29.1” of snow at Midway Airport, the fourth heaviest there since observations began in 1928, the month’s 24.5° average temperature finished 2.5° above normal.
The Midwest’s access to frigid arctic air has been severed for the time being by a shift in the jet stream pattern across North America. Gone are the northwest steering winds responsible for the chill of recent weeks. Two westerly jet streams are now in place—one over the Gulf, the other in southern Canada—each bypassing Chicago and Midwest. It’s a pattern which is to allow a sprawling high pressure to sit over the region the remainder of the week.
Kansas City was hit by snow early Monday—up to 10” of it in that city’s southern suburbs. The eastbound disturbance dissipated before reaching Chicago.

Chicago is transitioning to February in the midst of a milder, tranquil weather pattern after a very snowy month that brought two major snowstorms to the city. Temperatures topped the freezing mark both days this weekend and the week ahead promises more melting as temps push 40º by the end of the week. Were it not for the remnant snow pack on the ground, temperatures in the upcoming week would be headed for 50º instead of the expected highs in the 30s and lower 40s. The mild weather will not last however, and wintry conditions are expected to return by next weekend as a shift in the jet stream brings a blast of arctic air followed by a trailing clipper system that could bring the city another round of snow.

More than a hundred thousand residents of the Southeast remained without power in the wake of a major ice storm that raked the area over the weekend. However, rebounding temps are expected to quickly remove all traces of the weekend glazing.

Winter’s grip on Chicago will relax a bit in the upcoming week with the possibility for seven consecutive days with highs above freezing. Though maximum temperatures early in the week will be capped in the middle 30s, afternoon highs by the end of the week should climb into the lower 40s resulting in a marked decline in the area’s ample snow pack.

While the Chicago area is thawing, Atlanta along with much of the Southeast is reeling from the effects of a major ice storm. At least one-quarter inch of ice accumulated in the Atlanta area Saturday, knocking out power and shutting down every interstate in the area. Air traffic was crippled as hundreds of flights were canceled and there were at least three traffic fatalities.
As January, 2005 enters the record books, the month will be remembered for its snow—the 9 days with an inch or more of snowfall, two major snowstorms and a monthly snow total that will approach 30 inches.

January 2005’s final weekend has arrived‚—and with a temperature rebound underway! Readings by Friday afternoon reached 27° here—quite an improvement over the 2° low here which tied for this winter’s third coldest. It was areas just east of the city which bore the brunt of the arctic air. Valparaiso, Ind., bottomed out at -3° early in the day—but, in Michigan, Alpena established a new record with its -16° low and Flint hit -11°. Other records included -16° at Albany, -18° at Syracuse and -27° at Watertown—all in New York state.
The Deep South was in the grip of a winter storm late Friday. Ice accumulations up to 0.5” were predicted from Atlanta and Augusta, Ga., east into the Carolinas.
Moist air running up and over the retreating arctic air mass is behind Chicago’s cloud cover and predicted snowy spells Saturday. A second system could bring some more snow early next week.

Chicagoans are getting just a taste Friday morning of the frigid arctic air mass responsible for heartstopping -30° morning lows yesterday from northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan to interior New England. Fresh snow and light winds facilitated the temperature crash. In the Upper Midwest, readings were among this winter’s coldest, bottoming out at -32° at Petosky, -31° at Indian River, -30° at Elmira in northern Michigan while nearby Eagle River, Wis. hosted -26°. The southern flank of that bitter air mass has produced single digits in the city early Friday for only the 13th time this winter while sub-0° readings cover lower Michigan and northern Indiana at daybreak. New England is the region most directly affected by the chill. Watertown in Upstate New York recorded a record-breaking -32° low Thursday morning, “warming” to just +4° in the afternoon. Windchills in the Northeast held to -45° at some locations.

Thursday dawns with lake-effect clouds still generating snow showers and flurries over parts of the area. But, the atmospheric set-up responsible for the snowfall is to break down. Temps aloft are beginning to warm—a development which in time is to extinguish the upwelling of air critical to lake snow formation. In addition, surface winds are to change direction. Instead of blowing from the NE, a trajectory which brings them over 90-plus miles of open lake water, the flow will become SE this afternoon and evening. This dramatically reduces the air’s contact with water, shutting down the lake snow’s moisture supply.
More than 2” had fallen by late Wednesday evening at Schererville, Ind., and Beach Park (near Waukegan), while just 0.8” fell at Midway. Spotty accumulations in excess of 4” are likely in the hardest hit areas close to the lake.
Out East, hard-hit Boston recorded another 4.5” Wednesday bringing its January total to 42.2”—the greatest amount ever observed there for the month.

It hasn’t been as warm here as Tuesday afternoon’s 43° since a 47° high two weeks ago on January 13. Absent the area’s heavy snow cover, temperatures would have surged into the mid 50s! The mild spell effortlessly lopped 5” off one of the area’s heaviest late January snowpacks in years. At Midway Airport, the 14” cover Sunday shrunk to 9” by late Tuesday evening. But, the country’s real warmth Tuesday was in the Plains where new high temp records were established—among them 65° at Grand Island and 66° at North Platte—both in Nebraska.

Wednesday is to be the last day until next October 30 to produce a pre-5pm sunset thanks to lengthening days. The trend toward longer days has been ongoing for more than a month. In fact, Chicagoans now enjoy 52 minutes more sunlight than back on Dec. 21—the city’s shortest day and also the official start of winter.

-Tom Skilling

J. Kleeman sent us these pictures from last weekend's snowstorm -- he even was kind enough to write some captions for these photos. Thanks J. for the images!

This was northbound Buffalo Grove Road at Bernard Drive In Buffalo Grove taken at 7:50 a.m. Saturday the 22nd. County plows in a "conga line" are clearing the northbound lanes in one pass.

A driveway at 9:30 a.m. Saturday during a lake-effect snow squall.

A picture of a snow-blanketed street in Buffalo Grove.

With Chicago’s 2004-05 seasonal snow tally now at 30.4” in the wake of this weekend’s big storm (11.2” at O’Hare and 12.9” at Midway), the area has exceeded by nearly half a foot the 24.8” which fell all of last snow season. January, with 24.6” of snow to date, has become the city’s 4th snowiest since 1885. Even the snow which covers the ground is turning into one for the books. The 8” of snow on the ground here late Monday is the greatest cover of snow observed on a Jan. 24 since the 24” snowpack observed in 1979. (Note: There have been more recent January dates with heavier Chicago snowpacks, among them the 18” measured in the wake of the 21.6” snowstorm Jan. 1-3, 1999 and the 11” snow cover which remained after a foot of snow fell Jan. 30-31, 2002).
The chilliest weather in 2 years gripped Florida Monday morning. Temps fell to 31° at Tampa, 33° at Orlando, and 43° at Miami. Daytime highs only reached 59° at Tampa, a reading below the 69° recorded at Rapid City, S.D.

Above-freezing temperatures today and a chance of showers tonight will start to work on the current 6-12”-plus snow cover across the region. Cold temperatures midweek will stall the process, but thawing may pick up momentum next weekend with readings well into the 30s and a strong likelihood of more substantial rains. Should this scenario occur, the snow melt combined with significant rains could create runoff/flood problems the first part of the following week. Soils are saturated and frozen down to a 6-inch depth; add warming and rain, and flood-prone areas could be in real trouble.
Meanwhile, New England will try to dig out of a paralyzing 10-20” snowfall that reached 3-foot depths in Massachusetts.
Cold air has spread into the South with hard freeze warnings in effect this morning along the Gulf Coast and most of Florida.

Nearly a foot of snow fell in downtown Chicago Saturday. This shot was taken from a Loop roof deck Sunday morning.

Photo by Jay and Jodi Kahn

Northeast Illinois awoke Saturday to a heavy snow cover that was continuing to build. As the day progressed northerly winds gusting consistently over 35 miles per hour whipped and drifted falling and already fallen snow. As the storm center moved east, and winds became more east of north, the Lake Michigan “snow machine” kicked in. Bursts of snow dumped an additional 3 to 6 inches as far inland as DuPage County. Whiteout conditions along Chicago’s Lake Shore Drive forced its temporary closing late Saturday afternoon. Most of the city proper received a foot of snow with Wrigleyville reporting 15 inches. The storm raged on as it moved quickly through Ohio and Pennsylvania continuing to dump up to a foot of snow far to the north of its path. The storm was expected to further intensify off the New Jersey coast and blizzard warning were issued for a good portion of New England including New York and Boston where snowfalls up to 20 inches were forecast.

Be careful out there

After a final brief burst of heavy snow in the past hour, it appears that the snow is finally over in the northwest and far north suburbs. As the storm moves on the east preparing to clobber the major cities of the Northeast with a full blown nor'easter, upper-level winds over Lake Michigan are shifting from the northeast to the north allowing the lake effect snow bands to shift south and head for the south end of Lake Michigan. While the snow is ending in northern sections, this scenario means several more hours of lake effect snow for areas near the south end of the lake and many more hours of snow for northwest Indiana.

Total snowfall as measured at my home in Arlington Heights was just over 12 inches. Eight inches fell overnight from the storm itself and another 4+ inches fell today from lake effect snow.

January snowfall here now totals 27.7 inches with more than a week to go in the month. The January 4-6 storm brought more than 11 inches of to this area and this latest event a little more than 12 inches.

Steve Kahn WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune Meteorologist

Right now, the eastern portion of the Chicago area is in midst of a classic lake effect snow event. When a band of heavy snow moves in the visibility drops to near zero and the snow falls at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour. After about 15 or 20 minutes the band passes through, the snow becomes quite light and the visibility improves to 2 or 3 miles. At times there is even a hint of some sun trying to break through the snowy overcast.

In Arlington Heights snowfall from the storm system itself totaled about 8 inches as of 7 a.m. this morning. Now with the additional lake effect, another 3 or 4 inches of snow have fallen with the storm total here approaching one foot. Northeast winds are becoming strong and gusty and blowing and drifting is starting to become a serious problem.

At noon the radar indicated that these lake effect snow bands extended at least as far north as Green Bay, Wisconsin, so periods of lake effect snow should continue well into the afternoon hours until the snow bands finally pull east of the area.

Steve Kahn WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune Meteorologist

Well, part one of this storm is history. Eight inches of new snow is on the ground in Arlington Heights this morning and a massive snow removal job awaits. For the record, it is always easier for a forecaster to clear "forecast" snow than a "surprise" snow.

It doesn't look like this will be the end of the snowstorm. Lake effect snow is reving up in eastern Wisconsin this morning and shortly after daybreak Milwaukee reported the visibility near zero in heavy lake effect snow squalls. It looks like another snow removal effort will be needed this afternoon after part two of this storm-the lake effect portion- comes to an end.

Not since the 12” in January 30-31, 2002 has a storm generated more snow here. Truly big snows are actually relatively infrequent here. Of the 2,546 measurable snows since official measurements were first archived by the National Weather Service here in 1885, only 80 have generated 8”+ accumulations--and just 20 of those have produced 12”+ totals. That means a 12” or greater snow occurs on average only once every 6 years. Should the final storm total in the current system reach one foot at O’Hare—an outcome dependent on the amount of lake snow which occurs Saturday—it would become only the fourth time in the past 26 years that a 12” snowfall has occurred here.

Final snow tallies in this storm are likely to reach 9-13”. But, another 2-4” is likely to occur inland Saturday with greater amounts possible in bursts of snowfall off the lake. That could mean totals in excess of 13”occur in the hardest hit areas close to Lake Michigan.

Tom Skilling and the staff at the WGN Weather Center (Bill Snyder, Paul Dailey and Tom Valle) prepare forecasts and graphics for the Friday evening weather broadcast and tomorrow's Chicago Tribune weather report.

Keenan Smith preparing to go on air Friday on CLTV

WGN Weather Center's very own weather producer Bill Snyder is ready for the storm! Bill purchased a monster snow blower this week that is sure to gobble up the snow. This photo of his snow blower was sent to us via Bill's new wireless picture phone.

All is go for a major snowstorm Friday night into Saturday and
Saturday evening, with steady snow likely to reach the city between
5-7pm this evening---then fall steadily, and at times heavily, much of
the night. Total snow yields from this system appear likely to
challenge those of the winter's previous big snow back on January 4-6
which produced 9.8" of snow at O'Hare. 6-8" of snow is to accumulate
by morning with more occasional snowfall continuing, but at more
varied intensities Saturday--at times falling as light snow and
flurries, at other times--especially in the city and the counties
adjacent to Lake Michigan where lake enhanced snowfall is to occur as
the day proceeds---heavier intensities are possible. And, 8-10" seems
a good bet as the storm system's contribution to accumulation
here---with another 3-5" of lake-effect snowfall not out of the
question Saturday into Saturday night in sections of the counties
closest to Lake Michigan (i.e. Lake, Cook, eastern DuPage and parts of
Will county in Illinois and Lake and Porter Counties in Indiana). The
arrival of lake-effect snow appears likely to begin occurring mid or
late morning Saturday then increase at times in both frequency and
intensity in the afternoon and evening. A lot of lake ice has banked
up against Lake Michigan's western shoreline and this cuts down on the
amount of open lake water able to feed moisture in the atmosphere,
making the amount of lake snow which occurs in a mid-season storm like
this one a little problematic. But, a steep temp decline with
altitude (a condition referred to by meteorologists as "instability")
is to set up later Saturday morning and afternoon just as winds begin
blowing more from the NNE rather than the SE, increasing the "fetch"
(distance) over which they travel before streaming into the city. This
increases the time spent over lake water and the chance to pick up
moisture on the trek into lakeside areas of northeast Illinois and far
northwest Indiana. At the same time all this is happening, a vigorous
upper air disturbance is to pass over the area, increasing the "lift"
which helps generate clouds and snow. The confluence of all these
factors is behind the expectation that lake snow may provide
potentially significant additional accumulations to Saturday's snow.

Another factor likely to take on significance is wind. Fairly
moderate winds will accompany much of this storm's steady "system"
snow. But, as the storm deepens and a 1045 mb (30.86") arctic high
dives with arctic air into the Plains, powerful winds with gusts 30+
mph are likely to take hold Saturday afternoon and evening. The
comparatively fluffy nature of this storm's snow (with a 15 to 1 snow
to water ratio likely rather than the usual 10 to 1 ratio because of
the cold temps at which snow will occur in this system) may more
easily become airborne. This raises the specter of blowing and
drifting, particularly in open areas and areas along Lake Michigan, as
Saturday afternoon and evening proceeds. Single digits temps will
plunge into the area over the fresh snowpack Saturday night--with near
0-degree lows possible in colder west suburban locations (i.e. the Fox
Valley area).

All in all, a fascinating meteorological situation which we'll
continue updating here, on our WGN-TV programs and in the Chicago
Tribune.

The early afternoon sunshine has faded and lowering and thickening cloudiness is overspreading the city. The barometer is falling and there is a growing sense of urgency and anticipation knowing what is about to happen. Snow has already begun to fall in southwest Wisconsin and far northwest Illinois and should reach Chicago after dark. By this time Saturday, a lot of snow is likely to be on the ground and it will be badly blown and drifted about by strong winds.

Meteorologists have conflicting feelings about these storms. They know that a storm of this magnitude will cause trouble and hardship for millions of people and unfortunately probably take a few lives. Yet, it is their storm. They have watched it develop and evolve over many days, while putting all of their meteorological expertise on the line in trying to correctly forecast it and warn the public. They want to be right, but being right will mean big trouble.

Well, as stated before, the weather will do whatever it wants, no matter what the forecast is so...

Let the snow begin!

Periods of snow here Thursday, totaling 1.5” at O’Hare, 1.6” at La Grange, 1.7” Oak Lawn and as much as 2.5” at one location the city’s northwest side, have pushed the seasonal snow tally to more than twice the levels observed a year ago. Since the current season began, 19.2” has fallen at O’Hare—13.7” of it this month alone, well above the 11.3” full January norm. The nearly 20” on the books to date is 2.5 times the 7.6” a year ago.

Barring last minute storm track changes—a perennial possibility in the complex world of Midwest winter weather—the city may be on the way to its second +7” snowfall this month beginning this evening. Though it’s conceivable snowfall may break temporarily between the steady snows generated by the storm Friday night/Sat. morning and the lake snows due here Saturday afternoon and evening, final storm totals may reach 5-7”—heavier lakeside.
-Tom Skilling

Once again Chicago is under the "snow-gun". Winter storm watches have been posted for the entire metropolitan area from late Friday through late Saturday as another winter storm, this one dubbed an "Alberta Clipper" because of its speed and origin in the western-most Canadian prairie province, takes aim at the city.

Alberta Clippers tend to move southeastward along the boundary between cold arctic air and milder Pacific air. These storms usually don't produce excessively large snowfalls because they lack Gulf of Mexico moisture, but they frequently are accompanied by strong winds which cause a lot of blowing and drifting of the snow.

WEATHER PAGE ARCHIVES
For some background material on the Alberta Clipper, we are attaching an Ask Tom Why question from 2002 along with a Tribune weather page feature from several winters ago that highlighted this type of snowstorm.

March 4, 2002

Dear Tom, What is an “Alberta Clipper”?
Thomas Sporer, Glenview

Dear Thomas, An Alberta Clipper is a fast-moving storm originating in western Canada (usually in or near the province of Alberta) that speeds southeast into the Plains and Midwest, often accompanied by significant snowfall. Because these storms develop in an area characterized by low temperatures and little moisture, the snow has a low water content usually in the snow/water ratio range of 20:1. The storms are frequently accompanied by strong winds and poor visibility, and are followed by falling temperatures. The storm generally produces a short-duration snowfall of less than six inches. The term Alberta Clipper came into use in the early 1970s after the publication of a paper on Midwest snowstorms by the chief of the Milwaukee weather office, Bill Harms, and premier snow forecaster the late Al Morrison.
Copyright © 2005, WGN-TV

January has hosted the Chicago area’s three biggest snowstorms—the infamous 1967 Blizzard (23.0”) and the megasnows of 1979 (20.7”) and 1999 (21.6”). Significant snow accumulations are no stranger here this time of year. Even without a truly mammoth snowstorm to its credit, the month has tallied a total of 12” of snow to date, making it one for the books. The amount is already more than the 11.3” considered normal in an entire January. The opening 19 days of the month now qualify as the 15th snowiest of any January 1-19 period since official measurements began in 1885.

Another 1-2” is predicted in Thursday’s snowy periods. But, Friday night and Saturday is the period being closely monitored for the next significant snowfall here. An accumulation of 7” or more would mark only the third time in 121 years the city has been hit by two 7” or greater snows in a single January. (The first occurred Jan. 4-6, 2005 and totaled 9.8”).
-Tom Skilling

Chicago’s winter weather has moved into a decidely snowier phase. The area recorded Winter, 2004-05’s third-heaviest snowfall overnight, the final flurries of which could linger at some locations into Wednesday’s opening hours. By late Tuesday, snowfalls with the system had reached 4.5” at International Falls and 3.8” at Duluth, Minn. to Chicago’s northwest.

The snow comes on the heels of a cold January period—one of only 23 here over the last 135 years which have produced 15° or colder daytime highs over four consecutive days.
Tuesday marked the 10th day on which temps failed to reach 20°. By this time last year, only two such days had occurred. To our north, LaCrosse, Wisconsin recorded a morning low of -7°—-its 6th straight day with sub-zero temperatures there.

Record warmth made news Tuesday in the Pacific Northwest. In Oregon, temps reached 66° in Portland and 67° at Eugene.
-Tom Skilling

Before temperatures surge into the low 20s Tuesday, Chicagoans will have shivered through 108 consecutive hours of sub-15° readings which began at midnight Thursday night/Friday morning. It’s only the 11th time since 1871 that four consecutive days in mid-January have hosted temps of 15° or lower. The past four days have averaged only 8.5°—more than 15.5 degrees below normal and the 14th coolest mid-January period here in 135 years. Monday’s 11° high was Chicago’s coldest since the 3° high a year ago on Jan. 30.
The chill plunged deep into Florida where wind chill advisories accompanied predicted upper 20° lows overnight.
Meanwhile, space weather forecasters continue monitoring a mammoth sunspot which on Monday grew to the size of Jupiter on our sun’s surface. Huge solar flares have emanated from the area of solar storminess and auroral displays continue a better than normal possibility here on Earth.

Chicago’s current cold snap will begin to ease Tuesday as temperatures creep back into the 20s after four days with highs in the 10º to 15º range as the massive arctic high pressure area that brought the cold weather moves to the eastern United States.
That arctic high brought the coldest weather in nearly a decade to portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. One of the coldest spots has been Aberdeen, S.D., where record weekend cold sent lows to -35º on Friday, -25º Saturday and -30º Sunday.
The price for warmer weather will be an increasing threat of snow as a series of storm systems move across the Midwest. The first system should primarily affect areas north of Chicago Tuesday night and Wednesday, but the next system arriving Thursday night should track further south and could bring several inches of snow to Chicago before it moves east of the area early Saturday.

With cold dense arctic air well entrenched across the Midwest, Chicago’s official barometer reading climbed to lofty levels Saturday peaking at 30.86” around 9 a.m. This equaled the highest barometric pressure here since February 25, 1990 falling just short of the city’s record high reading of 30.98” recorded on February 16, 1989. Despite the proximity of the arctic air, some cloudiness and a lack of snow cover have held city temps just above zero Friday and Saturday mornings, but that is likely to change as a reinforcing lobe of the arctic cold moves in today and Monday. People willing to brave the cold may be treated to a display of the northern lights tonight or Monday night, a result of increased solar flare activity this weekend.

In the longer term, the cold weather is expected to moderate by midweek, but a “clipper” type storm system may bring a round of accumulating snow by the end of the week.

Cold as it is in Chicago, the brutal core of this arctic air mass is positioned just west of the metro area where it’s producing the coldest temperatures observed in 9 years—since 1996. From northern Iowa and Minnesota west to Montana, the mercury failed to break above 0° Friday. Wind chills hovered in the bonechilling -30 and -45° range. Only the lack of a heavy snow cover across the Chicago area has prevented the coldest readings here. That’s little comfort to those who work outdoors and the chill’s grip is to strengthen as a reinforcing cold front passes Sunday morning—a system which could bring snow showers to the area.

Temps to Chicago’s west Friday reached levels not often seen in recent winters. Readings dropped to -42° at Culbertson, Mont., -35° at Aberdeen, S.D. and -33° at Brainerd, Minn. at daybreak—and remained well below 0° all day . The current cold spell is well timed. Winter’s coldest temps here occur around January 19.

Chicago’s temperatures are 30° lower than just 24 hours ago. The area is on the precipice of its coldest readings of the season. But the cold weather may not be the first thing which catches residents’ attention Friday. In a month, which through sunset Thursday had produced only 201 of it’s possible 7,662 minutes of sunshine, it may be the reappearance of sun which proves most noticeable. With 98% of January, 2005’s sunshine a “no-show” until now, the month ranks among the cloudiest on record. The all time cloudiest January here occurred just 7 years ago (1998) when just 20% of possible sun was recorded.

Most area rivers are now in flood thanks to the prolific rains of recent days. The 1.71” of rain which fell at Midway Airport Wednesday and Thursday has pushed the monthly total to 4.30”—establishing January, 2005 as the wettest on record in the city since records began at the South Side site in 1928.

-Tom Skilling

Respectable snowfall Thursday to aid arctic air's arrival here

Snow on the ground: WGN-TV's very own back yard Thursday, Jan. 13, 2005

Snow has all but ended over the Chicago metropolitan area--now arctic
air's settling across the area. In the city1.1" fell Thursday at O'Hare
and 1" at Midway. Radar images and earlier computer model projections
suggest as much as 2-4" may have accumulated in spots--especially
isolated locations southwest of the city. Now, temperatures are
falling--headed below 0-degrees in the coldest outlying areas by Friday
morning and to single digits in city itself as Winter, 2004-05's coldest
air yet takes charge.(Temps are below 0-degrees from much of Montana
eastward across North and much of South Dakota and into Minneosota.
At 3pm, Williston, North Dakota reports a thermometer reading of
-17-degrees and much of North Dakota hosts windchills under -50-degrees.
This is easily the winter's coldest air to date. Afternoon air
temperatures in Canada's Yukon Territory are barbarically cold, hovering
close to 60-degrees below zero--and that's the source region of the
Midwest's weather in coming days!) And, this chill threatens to stick
around in the Chicago area! Frigid readings are predicted to hold firm
into early next week, then moderate closer to seasonable levels Tuesday
and Wednesday. But, importantly, new computer runs suggest a major new
outbreak of bitter air is to dive into the nation's heartland late next
week and the following weekend. This will rapidly erode Chicago's
January, 2005 temperature surplus that has the opening 12 days of the
month ranked 24th warmest of the past 135 years!

Check out the rainfall totals filed by National Weather Service COOP
observers through early this morning.

Rainfall Totals

It's official now in the city, according to veteran Chicago observer
and climatologist Frank WachowskiChicago has never been hit by more rain
in a January over the term of records at Midway Airport (observations
there began in 1928) than has been the case this year. With 4.20" down
through midday, January, 2005 is now the wettest on record at
Midway--and there's more than half the month yet to go!

The flooding in progress along so many area rivers was captured
earlier today by weather observer Mary Anne of Remington, Indiana, who
shares these shots with us. Thanks Mary Anne!

-Tom Skilling, WGN-TV meteorologist

Temperatures in Chicago have reached the 60s only 32 times since official observations began here 134 years ago. That means fewer than two in 10 Januarys have been as mild as Wednesday. Yesterday’s official 62° high tied a 115-year old record (set in 1890) and was the city’s warmest January reading here in 8 years—since the 64° high on January 4, 1997. A 62° reading is equal to the normal high temp here on April 25.

Powerful t-storms swept a narrow corridor of the metro area, from Kendall County northeast into Cook County Wednesday morning. But by evening, a far more substantial squall line swept into the area from the west producing driving downpours, winds which gusted as high as 64 m.p.h. at west suburban Sugar Grove Airport and cloud to ground lightning at a rate of 60 to 120 strokes every 10 minutes. Overnight rains of up to 1.50” threatened to push rivers, already swollen by Wednesday’s snowmelt runoff, to flood stage.
-Tom Skilling

When I first started my career with the Weather Bureau in 1962 we used to disseminate a type of winter weather warning that, for unknown reasons, is no longer in use today. It was called a Cold Wave Warning and was issued when a large drop in temperature was forecast to occur in a short period of time, ultimately sending readings to near or below zero. Tonight would be a perfect time to use it as current readings in the upper 50s are expected to plunge to zero or below by early Friday.

In addition to a Cold Wave Warning, a Pothole Watch would probably very appropriate to issue at this time. Chicago area motorists will soon be paying the price for this rapid freeze-thaw-freeze cycle we are currently in. As temperatures plunge the next 36 hours the rapid refreezing of all the water from the rain and melting snow will undoubtedly give rise to a new generation of potholes in the near future.

Thundery downpours threaten up to 1.50" of additional rainfall Wednesday night

Temperatures have soared into the 60s across the southern half of the metro area---from Chicago south. Chicago's record high temp for the date (January 12) is 62-degrees set back in 1890--a reading within striking distance this afternoon. At the Midway Airport National Weather Service observation site, official observer Frank Wachowski reports the 2:20 pm Wednesday temp of 61-degrees has easily eclipsed the old record high there of 58-degrees in 1960.

A cluster of t-storms, which erupted in northern Kendall County around 7:30 am this morning raced northeastward into Cook County by 8:50 a.m. The storms, which towered to as much as 43,000 ft. according to Doppler radar scans here earlier today, produced more than 120 cloud to ground lightning strokes strokes in the city alone according to the area's lightning detection system, each accompanied by sharp crashes of thunder. Oakbrook saw 0.61" of rain and pea sized hail in the storm-generated downpours.

The warmth has eliminated much of the snow cover over the southern half of the metropolitan area while snow continues on the ground to the north--though substantial melting is underway and the run-off coupled with up to 1.50" of additional rainfall due to begin later today and tonight. These photos of this morning "advection fog" from weather observer Mary Anne in Remington, Indiana illustrates the interaction between lingering patches of snow on the ground and the incoming unseasonably warm, moist air. Fog cut visibilities at Remington to 100 ft. for a time this morning and visibilities of less than a tenth of a mile were widely reported over the metro area, especially the most heavily snow covered north and west suburban locations. Advection fog forms when warm air streams up and over the cold snow covered surface and undergoes cooling. This lowers temps to the dewpoint, which is the temperature at which the air holds all the moisture it can.

Eastbound hail and downpour generating t-storms to Chicago's west as of mid-afternoon, and which are also producing prolific lightning discharges, are an indication of the weather headed this way later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Heavy rainfall and the runoff from melting snow threaten to produce extensive flooding on area rivers. Standing water may also accumulate on roadways, particularly those with sewers clogged by ice.

Tom Skilling, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune meteorologist

I wanted to share with you my early January on-air weather chat with
Alaska's beloved Mike Porcaro (pictured here on the left) and his ace
engineer and always friendly sidekick Doug McCullough (on the far
right). Mike's popular KENI afternoon drive time radio program out of
Anchorage is an Alaskan favorite each afternoon and evening from 4 to 6
P.M. on the Clear Channel news/talk radio station which unabashedly dubs
itself the 50,000 watt "Blowtorch". (Mike kids that the station's signal
is so powerful that it has toothbrushes glowing in Siberia--just across
the Bering Sea from our Great 49th State!)

I first visited with Mike last January as my producer Pam Grimes,
videographer Kevin Myers and I began filming our recently re-aired
weather special, "Alaska: Where Winters are Really Winters" last
January. (Many thanks to all who e-mailed to let us know they watched
the program!!!) Preparing that show allowed each of us rare insights
Alaska's fascinating but challenging winters and of the passion Alaska's
residents hold for that season and its uniquely awesome beauty. Mike
had gotten wind of our visit and extended me an invitation to talk about
it on his program, opening the phone lines to the many WGN-TV viewers
and Midwest transplants who now call Alaska home and still watch WGN-TV
on cable. What a great time I had with Mike and his listeners!

Mike is the former Executive Director of the Alaska Public
Broadcasting Commission--responsible in many ways years ago for bringing
television to a state so vast it covers an area equivalent to 20% the
land mass of the Lower 48 (no easy task, as you can imagine) has called
Alaska home for 30 years and began his broadcast career in the Rockford,
Illinois market. His advertising and public relations firm, Porcaro
Communications, is an institution in Alaska and western Canada!

-Tom Skilling

For only the second time this month, thunder may accompany rainfall later Wednesday. South winds predicted to reach 75 m.p.h. just a mile above Chicago are forcing unusually mild air over the area’s extensive snow cover. Dense fog has resulted as the chilly surface cools the air, producing condensation.

Downpour generating t-storms and the prolific runoff generated as melting snows free 0.50” to 1.50” of water trapped in the area’s snowpack, threaten widespread flooding. Ice dams—the buildup of chunks of ice as above freezing temps reach area river basins—and snow-clogged storm sewers threaten extensive flooding. An incoming flood of frigid air Thursday may complicate matters by turning standing water to ice later Thursday/Thursday night. Thundery weather has occurred already this month on Jan. 1. Additional t-storms late today would mark the 10th time since 1871 that a January has produced two or more days of t-storms.
-Tom Skilling

Not since 1963 have the opening 10 days of January been cloudier. Just 3% of this area’s possible sunshine has been recorded. The period’s 1.37” of precipitation ranks 13th wettest of the past 135 years. On average, Januarys here host 43% of their possible sun. Clouds lingering in the wake of an icy overnight weather system promise a continuation of the month’s dismal character Tuesday. The storminess here pales in comparison to the downpours which have flooded southern California. Four-day rain totals have been astronomical in the mountains near Los Angeles and San Diego. By late Monday, 27.64” had fallen in Opids Camp while Beverly Hills recorded 10.57”.
Winds, originating Tuesday more than 900 miles to the south near Biloxi, Miss., head for Chicago Wednesday with 50° highs. But, arctic air likely to produce lows of -35° over the upper Midwest Thursday night, will send temps here diving more than 50 degrees to near 0° by Friday morning.

Here's something you won't see every day: Someone building a sauna in the middle of snow-covered wilderness in Alaska. These pictures were taken at a cabin about 120 miles north of Anchorage by meterologist Tom MacPhail. It's immediately apparent how challenging it is to build in cold, snowy conditions -- note the propane torch being used to melt ice and hard snow on the foundation structure (top) so the wood log walls can be erected (middle). Another picture shows how deep the snow is: An outhouse (below) is completely covered by a healthy blanket of snow. Thanks to Tom for sending these pictures!

Mary Anne Best of Remington, Ind., recently sent us these images of hoar frost taken near her home. Hoar frost occurs as ice crystals form on vegetation and objects near the ground when water vapor in the air condenses at subfreezing temperatures directly onto their surfaces. Thanks for the photos, Mary Anne!

The National Weather Service has placed Northeast Illinois under a Winter Storm Watch with a strong potential for freezing rain to develop later tonight and continue into the daylight hours Tuesday. Even a very thin coating of ice could create significant travel problems, so persons anticipating a need to be out later tonight and Tuesday should be aware of potential complications and take appropriate precautions.
Warming temperatures may alleviate icing later Tuesday, but rain will probably intensify and snow melt accelerate, causing local flood problems as drainage basins and small streams overflow—especially in susceptible lower-lying areas, basements and streets.
A temperature drop of nearly 45 degrees in 36 hours will hit Thursday and Friday with falling temps Thursday and subzero wind chills likely into the weekend.

As Indiana battles the highest floodwaters in a century in the south and recovers from ice-storm related power-outages in the central and north, the first part of the week Chicagoans will see temperatures for the most part above freezing with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wednesday should see warming well into the 40s maybe even hitting 50°.

These seasonably mild readings (averaging some 15° above normal) combined with gusty winds and a good chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday will melt/evaporate much of the snow that presently covers northeast Illinois. However a major shift in jet stream flow mid-week will open the doors to a northerly flow that will tap Arctic cold and shunt the coldest air of the winter into the Midwest the latter half of the week. The coldest air will hit Friday and Saturday with single-digit daytime highs and sub-zero overnight lows.

Chicago and environs continue to dig out from the recent 10 inch snowfall. Though Saturday’s high of only 32° will not make much of a dent, successively warmer days should substantially erode, if not eradicate, the snow pack by the end of the day Wednesday, when temperatures stretch to near 50deg. Effective snow-eating features in the upcoming warm-up include rain with dew points and nighttime temperatures above freezing.

Shortly thereafter in this high amplitude pattern, the tables turn abruptly as some of the coldest air of the season sweeps through starting overnight Wednesday. The jet stream, which has been southwesterly for more than a week, turns in from the north as the polar vortex shifts to this side of the northern hemisphere. Thursday promises to be very windy with steadily falling temperatures. By the weekend, reinforcing cold air with origins in Siberia arrives in force, when high temperatures climb only into single digits after subzero lows.

Skies cleared across Chicago by midday Thursday, after the 36 hour storm dumped 9.8 inches officially at O’Hare and 9.2 inches at Midway. Only about once every three years does a storm of this magnitude strike Chicago: the last was a 12 inch storm on January 30-31, 2002. Chicago was just one stop on the coast-to-coast storm which began last weekend in California and soon exits New England.

Downstate Illinois reported a significant ice storm. Meanwhile, fresh snow cover and clear skies allowed temperatures to plummet last night. For the upcoming week, temperatures rise slowly, with meaningful snow melt beginning Sunday and continuing until mid week. By next Wednesday or so, the tables turn and the jet stream turns northwesterly, tapping frigid Arctic air for an extended period.

Just when it appeared to be all over, the last vestiges of the snowstorm brought a quick one inch burst of snow to Arlington Heights between 7 and 7:30 a.m. this morning bringing the storm's total snowfall to just over 11 inches. Melted down, the snow contained .97" of water giving an 11.5:1 snow to rain ratio, typical for a Chicago snowstorm with temperatures in the upper 20s.

Here is a breakdown of the 36 hour storm at my home.

Date Snowfall/Water Equivalent
January 4th 0.8" snow/.07" water
January 5th 7.4" snow/.63" water
January 6th 3.2" snow/.27" water

Storm Total 11.4"snow/.97" water

Chicago's snowy streets on Jan. 6, 2005. A few blocks east of WGN TV Studios

The season's first major snowstorm has come to an end and a potent one it was. The snow began around 8 p.m. Tuesday night January 4 and ended in the early morning hours of January 6, a duration of more than 30 hours.

Total snowfall at my home in Arlington Heights was about 10 inches with drifts as high as 2 feet.

By Wednesday, 4 to 8 inches of snow were reported across Chicagoland, the heaviest north and west of Chicago, with lesser amounts south of the city where precipitation began as rain before changing over to all snow.
The official O’Hare airport total should exceed 8 inches, smashing the one-day January 5 snow record of 3.1 in. back in 1991. Across central Illinois, a thick coating of freezing rain caused widespread power outages.

Lingering flurries with the system should end before noon Thursday, with a slow warm-up beginning over the weekend. By early next week, temperatures climb into the 40’s and stay above freezing overnight, averaging 15 to 20 degrees above normal and making significant inroads into melting snow. This scenario is totally out of character for Chicago, since heavy January snows are usually followed by a stiff dose of Arctic cold.

A band of moderate to heavy snow across northwest and west central Illinois will be moving into the Chicago Metropolitan area shortly after 10:00 p.m. Visibilities in many areas will drop below 1/2 mile and the snow will accumulate at rates up to 1 inch an hour bringing several more inches of snow. Strong northeast winds blowing at 15 to 25 m.p.h. with higher gusts will continue to cause considerable blowing and drifting of the snow.

Once this band passes to the east of the city during the early morning hours of Thursday, the snow will become lighter only minor accumulations after that.

Steve Kahn WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune Meteorologist

January 5, 2005 has made its mark on Chicago weather history. With 4.9" of snow officially measured from midnight through 8:30 p.m. at O'Hare Airport, the city has shattered today's old snowfall mark of 3.1" established back in 1991. The snow is expected to continue through midnight and today's record snowfall will continue to increase with the day's final snowfall total to be determined at midnight. Chicago snowfall records date back to late 1884.

Shortly after 8 p.m. snowfall intensities across the metropolitan area have decreased a bit with visibilities rising to about 1 mile after dropping as low as 1/4 mile earlier this evening when bands of heavy snow moved across the area. This lull in the snow should be brief with radar showing another band of heavier snow approaching from southeast Iowa and western Illinois. With area snowfall totals now in the 5 to 8 inch range, final accumulations should approach 6 to 10+ inches before the snow ends early Thursday morning.

Steve Kahn WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune Meteorologist

Light to moderate snow continues to fall across the Chicago area this evening. Here are some snow depths obtained from the National Weather Service in Chicago.
Area snow depths at 6 p.m.
Illinois
Cicero 7
Carpentersville 5
Frankfort 5
Grayslake 5
LaGrange 5
Oak Lawn 5
Richton Park 5
Schaumburg 5
Willowbrook 4

Indiana
Chesterton 5
Highland 5

Light to moderate snow continues to fall across the metro area this evening with visibilities reduced to less than one mile in most areas.
The heaviest snow appears to be falling in a band across areas from West Chicago through O'Hare to Wheeling and Northbrook where visibilities are the lowest- down to about 1/2 mile.

At 6 p.m. a deepening low pressure center was located over southwest Indiana east of Evansville, and radar and satellite data showed the heaviest snow falling across areas from southeast Nebraska across southern Iowa to northern Illinois all the way to Chicago. It appears that significant snowfall will continue across the Chicago area for several hours.

TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 6 P.M.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS 5.8
O'HARE AIRPORT 4.8 (OFFICIAL CITY TOTAL)
MIDWAY AIRPORT 4.7

Steve Kahn WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune Meteorologist

Steve Kahn measuring one of the higher drifts in front of his house Wednesday evening.

More snow to come!

Precipitation associated with the winter storm began falling across the Chicago area around 8 p.m.Tuesday evening. with northern portions of the metropolitan area receiving snow while southern sections experienced an icy combination of freezing rain, sleet and snow. The precipitation continued through the night with much of the area waking up to a 1 to 2 inch snow cover this morning.

Throughout today snow was generally light and intermittent across the area with about another 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Driven by strong northeast winds gusting to 30 m.p.h. snow piled into 1 foot high drifts in some areas. Through late afternoon storm snow totals ranged from 3 to 5 inches, impressive for this meager snow season to date, but hardly worthy of a major storm.

This evening, however, the storm is showing signs of intensifying and the city and suburbs may be in store for a night of heavy snow that will bring snowfall to the 6 to 12 inch totals advertised in earlier forecasts by Thursday morning.

Updates on the storm will continue through the evening.

Stay tuned!!

Steve Kahn WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune Meteorologist

Heavy snow is no stranger to Chicago in January. The most recent one-footer was less than three years ago, Jan. 30-31, 2002. This storm has good credentials: it’s dripping with moisture and has the punch for a major storm. However, all storm elements don’t quite gather at the same time, so the surface low development and cold air fail to phase completely, and much of the storm’s moisture is spent on freezing rain or rain south of Kankakee. Nonetheless, longevity compensates, and the resulting long duration snow at Chicago may top 8 inches, with the peak of the storm late Wednesday.

This time of year, a major storm normally pulls down a mountain of frigid air from Canada, but that air is missing since the jet stream in days to come has origins in the southwest U.S. By early next week, temperatures rebound into the snow-melting 40s.

This is the meteorologist's Superbowl! This is crunch time. A major winter storm is bearing down on the Midwest and the Chicago area and the weatherman's job is to warn everyone about what will happen and get it right.

These are the times of sleepless nights, hours spent in front of the computer painstakingly "Einsteining" the various atmospheric models, looking for that one bit of information that will reveal the storm's correct path to the forecaster.

By Thursday it will all be over, some areas will be digging out from more than a foot of snow. Other locations will be trying to recover from the ravages of a major ice storm, residents faced with a loss of heat and power and impossible travel conditions, while other places will get nothing more than some rain.

As usual the Chicago Metropolitan area sits near the elusive and hard to predict rain-snow line. Another two days of anguish lie ahead as the storm moves in, does its thing and then departs.

How will it all pan out? Time will of course tell and as usual, the weather will win again- no matter what is forecast!

Stay tuned!!

Steve Kahn

Chicago has been dodging snow and ice storms since Thanksgiving, but that may all be ending soon. A powerful upper low that plagued California and the southern Rockies with snow and more flooding rain is taking aim on the Midwest. The eventual track of the heaviest snow is still in doubt as development of the attendant surface low does not appear until noon Wednesday. To further complicate matters, some of the considerable moisture with this system is above freezing, allowing sleet, freezing rain or even rain to mix in. If the storm stays all snow, city totals could exceed 8 inches, peaking in the overnight hours of Wednesday into Thursday. The storm could span 48 hours from late Tuesday until early Thursday. Thereafter, brisk northerly winds follow Thursday, with a slow warming each succeeding day—into the low 40s by next Monday.

Rain, which moved into Chicagoland during the night, will continue through much of the day on Monday. Morning temperatures will remain at or below freezing north and west of Chicago (except along the lakeshore), which will aid in the development of some light freezing rain. During the afternoon, the area of freezing rain will expand southward before precipitation finally ends in the evening. For the days that follow, Chicago will sit on the cold side of the jet stream until late in the week, so precipitation Wednesday will likely be in the form of snow in Chicago, with an ice storm in central Illinois.
So far this season, freezing rain has been reported over many areas of the United States and Canada east of the Rockies, with several traffic fatalities a direct result of ice covered roads. In this pattern, eastern Kansas and western Missouri are vulnerable to ice storms right through Wednesday.

Ice storms are not that rare in the Midwest but are more common in other parts of the country, like the Appalachians or Ozarks. Yet Saturday, parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin are enduring a second ice storm in three days, with another three days of freezing rain or sleet possible.
This type of frozen precipitation occurs when above-freezing rain at some lower level in the atmosphere overspreads below freezing temperatures at ground level. These freezing rain events can cause significant problems for trees, power lines, and motorists. On the warmer side of the air mass, Chicago has been spared so far, but is close enough to the next ice storm to keep it in the forecast Monday.
Before that, another shot of mild air sweeps through from the south for a mild day Sunday. Thereafter, temperatures return toward normal, with rain or snow possible on most days in the upcoming week.

The last two days of 2004 saw Chicago’s thermometers hit at least the mid 50s (57° Thursday and 56° Friday)—the last time this happened was 40 years ago in 1965 when the highs on the 30th and 31st were 56° and 60° respectively.
This meteorological feat (consecutive year-end highs of 55°-plus) has occurred a grand total of only four times since 1870. These readings are 25 to 30 degrees above normal—more typical of Halloween.
While the west-to-east jet stream flow aloft will for the most part confine arctic cold air masses north of the Canadian border, it also encourages frequent passages of low pressure systems along this parallel. As a result, rain is expected to hit later today and tonight, again Monday night into Wednesday, and then again next weekend. The week ahead will see a drop off in temperatures, but readings will still average better than 10 degrees above normal.