WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist Tom Skilling and the WGN Weather Center staff provide daily coverage of weather in the Chicago area.

February 2008 Archives

The First Hints of Spring?

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Mike Lynch of Lombard sends us a picture of what he calls his "snow crocuses." He explains:

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I noticed them yesterday, and when I heard Steve Sanders ask about daffodils last night, I decided to take a picture for you this morning. Normally my daffodils are not far behind the snow crocuses, and I'm ready for Spring!

Thanks Mike for your photo!

—WGN-TV Weather Center

Mark and Karen Vogan of Scotland visited Chicago just a week ago. Mark, an avid weather enthusiast whose pictures and accounts of Scottish weather have appeared on this blog before, reports this winter has been mild overall in the U.K. -- but he was most interested in arriving in the Midwest to take in the mid-winter chill. He reports:

"Here are more icy lakefront pictures we took and also from the top of the Sears Tower on a brilliantly clear day; note the lake-effect snow clouds over on the Indiana and Michigan side of the lake.

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Photos courtesy of Mark Vogan

The ice along the shore at the (Adler) Planetarium was on a day with east winds, and we witnessed the ice movement and overlapping of the slabs at they backed up against the shore. Amazing sights and sounds that I have never witnessed before."

Magnificent photos, Mark! Thanks for sharing them with us, and I'm glad you had such a good time here! All the best to you and your wife Karen!

--Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

Snow covered the ground in February 22 days

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January 1947 Milwaukee blizzard

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Planet Watch

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Lake Michigan ice shots along Winnetka Beach

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Many thanks for these beautiful shots of Lake Michigan shoreline ice to Xerxes Bhote, who along with his daughter, took them on Winnetka Beach this week. Our cold February has contributed to the extraordinary ice buildup this season. Many thanks Xerxes for sharing these photos with us!

Tom Skilling

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Photos courtesy of Xerxes K. Bhote, Winnetka, Illinois

Chicago in for its 35th measurable snow day of the season

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Ranking Winter 2007-08 to-date

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We’ve all watched the horrific events of recent weeks at Northern Illinois University with shock and sadness. The shootings there hit terribly close to home when we were informed that Patrick Korellis, an NIU intern in our office just last semester, had been among those wounded. Patrick is home and doing well for which we are grateful. But our hearts stopped here when we first heard the news and we feel profound sadness for the family and friends of those who lost their lives in the senseless shooting at Cole Hall there.

When these photos arrived from Kenny Chmielewski, a meteorology student at NIU, I just had to post these for you to see. They signify that the NIU spirit is alive. Kenny, we thank you for sharing these shots with us! Stay warm and let all know there we are thinking of all of you in these difficult times!

Tom Skilling


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Photo courtesy: Kenny Chmielewski

Ice shots along Chicago’s lakefront at Belmont Harbor

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These spectacular shots of Chicago’s lakefront in winter come to us from Jon DiGiuseppe. They were taken last weekend. These are magnificent photos and really capture the season, Jon! Many thanks!

Tom Skilling

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Photo courtesy: Jon DiGiuseppe

Sunny here, but Indiana hit with heavy lake snow

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Planet Watch

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Erin A. Bluhm shares these photos with us depicting the ice shelf which has developing on Lake Michigan at Beverly Shores and the snowstorm which swept the region last night. Lake-effect snow bands have developed and will continue to target an area in northwest Indiana’s lake snowbelt through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Many thanks to Erin for sending these photos along!

Tom Skilling

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Photos courtesy of Erin Bluhm, Beverly Shores, Indiana

These shots from Amanda Picket, taken around 7:30 am Tuesday morning, put that area’s snow on display. Jenny, Amanda’s kitty, is shown surveying the wintry situation. Great shots--thanks Amanda.

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Photos courtesy of Amanda Pickett, Winfield, Indiana

Snow renders much of the area a winter wonderland

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Mary Anne Best shares these beautiful photos with us from the Remington,
Indiana area--hit by the same snowfall which produced widespread 4-6"
totals overnight (Monday night into Tuesday morning). Mary refers to
this as "sectional snow" since it seems to hit each year at basketball
tournament time. Thanks for the great shots, Mary Anne!

Tom Skilling

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Photos courtesy of Mary Anne Best, Remington, Indiana

Understanding the Weather: Feb. 26, 2008

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Chicago has a national reputation of being a snowy city, but many U.S. cities routinely receive much more than Chicago's winter average of 39 inches. Here are several cities whose seasonal snow total is at least twice as great as Chicago's:

324" Valdez, Alaska
137" Marquette, Michigan
116" Syracuse, New York
102" Lander, Wyoming
100" Flagstaff, Arizona
99" Juneau, Alaska
98" Muskegon, Michigan
93" Buffalo, New York
92" Rochester, New York
81" Duluth, Minnesota
79" Burlington, Vermont

Snow returns, Indiana to bear brunt of latest storm

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Greasy snow

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Chicago’s latest winter storm moves in; the view from near Montrose Harbor late Monday afternoon

Huge snowflakes with the Chicago area’s latest winter storm were falling late Monday— the flakes were wet and sticking together as they fell to earth through an air mass with temperatures near or just above 32-degrees. This shot, relayed to us by Tracey Surface in the Montrose Harbor area, shows the visibility dropping as the rain and sleet changed to snow. (Thanks Tracey!). We expect 4-7” to accumulate across the Chicago area through Tuesday morning amid strengthening NE to N winds.

Lake enhancement of the snowfall is likely in the morning in Chicago and other northeast Illinois lakeside communities—and bands of lake effect snow are forecast to sweep the Indiana snowbelt much of Tuesday as colder arctic air wraps into the storm’s backside. The cooling process sets up steep vertical temperature declines through the atmosphere, encouraging moisture laden lake air to ascend and enhance clouds and snowfall development. The build-up of late winter season lake ice on the west side of Lake Michigan in a northeast wind flow, like the one accompanying this storm, often reduces the extent of ice-free lake surface able to feed moisture into the atmosphere. This can cut into the amount of moisture the lake provides storms like this one. But, it is still likely at least some lake enhancement of snowfall will take place—especially in northwest Indiana. The storm is likely to contribute 3-5” of snow to this system while Lake Michigan contributes another 1-2” to accumulations in areas closest to the lake.

More tonight here on our blog and on WGN’S Nine O’ Clock News program. More snow could hit later Thursday into Thursday night and two week snowfall estimates from the 8 most recent runs of the National Weather Service’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model range from 5” to 13”—well ahead of the long term average of 4.1” for the coming 2 week period ending Tuesday, March 11.

Tom Skilling
Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV Weather

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Photo courtesy: Tracey Surface

Winter ice in Lake Michigan as viewed from Chicago

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Kathy Caleca of Franklin Park shares these shots of the ice formations in Lake Michigan as taken during a recent trip to Navy Pier.  Thanks for the beautiful shot, Kathy!
 
Tom Skilling
  

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Photos courtesy of Kathy Caleca of Franklin Park, Illinois

A longtime friend of our weather office Don Kanner, who teaches physics at Lane Tech, shares this shot of the "shelves" of ice which which have formed on trees near Starved Rock to Chicago's west. Don was there over the weekend in search of Bald Eagles and was struck by the ice formations which he tells us he photographed on Dee Bennet Road across from Starved Rock. Thanks for passing this along to us Don!

Tom Skilling

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Photo courtesy of Don Kanner of Lane Tech High School

After sunny weekend, it’s back to stormy winter

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--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Chicago's Next Rain/Snow Threat

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Clouds and Wind

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Warm-up brings rain Monday, then snow and cold

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--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Meteorological winter 2007-08 draws to a close

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U.S. Temperature Extremes

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5-week streak of cloudy weekends gives way to sun

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--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Sugar Beet De-icing Compound

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Wednesday's lunar eclipse as photographed from Chicago

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Hope you enjoy these amazing shots of Wednesday's total lunar eclipse as viewed from northern Illinois and Indiana. These images were relayed to us by our WGN-TV viewers and loyal weather blog readers. I apologize for my delay in posting these. I was out at a National Weather Service conference in Maryland Thursday or they'd have been up sooner -- but I did want you to see them.

As always, our remarkable astronomer Dan Joyce did a terrific job in keeping us informed of the eclipse's progress. Thanks to all!!

--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photos courtesy of Sheldon Faworki, Elizabeth, Ill.


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Time-lapse photos courtesy of Thomas Nava, Northwest Side of Chicago, Ill.


Curt Renz, always a friend of this blog and our WGN weather office, provides us this shot of Wednesday's eclipse and explains: Below is a photo I captured of the lunar eclipse two minutes after maximum totality. It was taken from Arlington Heights, Ill., on 2008 FEB 20 at 21:28 CST. Saturn is toward the lower left and Regulus near the top. A reddish hue is apparent on the Moon. Even though the eclipse was in totality, the lower right limb of the Moon appears brightened because as viewed from that region the Sun would have been barely hidden by the Earth.

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Photo courtesy of Curt Renz


Paul Hadfield shares these remarkable photographs shot downstate in central Illinois with us. Thanks Paul!

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Photos courtesy of Paul Hadfield, Decatur area


Jay Kleeman offers us his shots of Wednesday’s eclipse. Thanks Jay!

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Photos courtesy of Jay Kleeman

Wintry mix south and east as Chicago stays cloudy

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Chicago's 2007-08 snowfall ranking

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Blinding snowstorm hits parts of northern Indiana

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Chicago's latest sub-zero temp

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Numbingly cold days uncommon as winter wanes

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March, 1974 warmth in Chicago

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This scene, captured on his car phone by our friend and Holland, Michigan observer John Gehr, has been repeated time and time again Tuesday across much of western Michigan’s lake snowbelt. Since Monday, John reports 6-7” has fallen at Holland (through the issuance of this update mid-afternoon Tuesday) while National Weather Service observers indicate 10” or greater accumulations had fallen in western Michigan 11 miles west of Baldwin, at Ludington (12”), Cloverville (10.4”), 1 mile north of Muskegon (10.5”), just west/southwest of Hart (15.0”) and at Zeeland (13.0”) through 11:42 pm Tuesday. Many thanks to John Gehr for the photo and update on weather conditions in western Lower Michigan.

Tom Skilling


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Photo courtesy: John Gehr

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Chicago cold in the mid-1960s

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Even the Tucson, Arizona area has gotten in on some challenging winter weather this year. That’s the word from Chicago born and Lane Tech alumnus Tony Bogusz who watches our WGN Nine O’Clock News from Vail, Arizona—20 miles east of downtown Tucson. Tony’s sent us these beautiful shots taken within the past week of snow there and in the surrounding mountains. Tony asked I assure my viewers and blog visitors that “…they are NOT alone in the rough winter weather this season. Tucson has been hit with a good dose of “winter”, too.

With cabin fever taking hold of many here in given the wintry weather of the past month, your words offer solace to some who feel we’re alone with this year’s winter weather challenges. Great hearing from you, Tony!

Tom Skilling

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Photos courtesy: Tony Bogusz, Vail, Arizona

City avoids major snow, but not next arctic blast

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--By Steve Kahn, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

From blizzards to thunderstorms in less than 300 miles

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Chicago Snow Cover

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Potent storm to bring brief glaze, heavy rain, then snow

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A timetable of Chicago’s upcoming full moons

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Hurricanes in the South Atlantic

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Sunny weather is the calm before wintry storm

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--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

Explosive atmosphere to energize Sunday's storm

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Jay Kleeman shares these beautiful shots of Chicago and Lake Michigan's ice-filled waters which he took Friday evening. Cirrostratus at the vanguard of the southern Plains storms predicted to lift into the Midwest over the weekend are evident on several of the shots. Jay is a master at capturing our area in photos, and we thank him for sending them along to us!
--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photos courtesy of Jay Kleeman

Chicago's Snow Records

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Snow buries Wisconsin; Chicago gets arctic punch

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Chicago snow measurements at Midway

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Last week’s snow in north suburban Gurnee

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With a burst of snow and possible local 0.50-inch totals due Thursday night and continuing indications of a potentially major storm Sunday and Sunday night—one which could kick off with mixed precipitation then transition to potentially significant snow—the 2007-08 season’s ever-expanding snow tallies continue to impress. Tricia Mitchell share these photos of the snowpack in north suburban Gurnee with us from last week.

THANKS Tricia for these revealing shots! They’re marvelous! Northwest suburban seasonal snow tallies have surged past 60” from Arlington Heights and Mundelein and have passed 50” (50.5”) in the city at Midway Airport.

Tom Skilling
WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist


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Photos courtesy of Tricia Mitchell, Gurnee, Illinois

Above-freezing days are welcome, but fleeting

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Chicago's Winter of 1978-79

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Snowfall may pause for just 3rd time in 2 weeks

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Tornadoes in snowstorms

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Tracey Surface provides us this photo of Tuesday afternoon’s snow as it swept into Montrose Harbor earlier this afternoon. Many thanks Tracey! By late evening (5:30 p.m.), Chicago area snow tallies have reached the 2-5” range—including 2” at O’Hare, 3” at Downers Grove and our meteorological colleague Steve Kahn reports 4” is down at Arlington Heights. Chicago’s Midway Airport—where the mid-afternoon 2007-08 seasonal tally has risen to 49.7” (14.7” of it having falling in February alone)—is likely to have played host to a total of 50+” before the evening ends, says veteran Midway and Chicago weather observer Frank Wachowski. Frank also reports this snow, because of the cold temperatures in which it has formed and fallen, has a 22 to 1 snow to water ratio—indicating this snow has more than twice the volume of conventional snow here.

Radar (at 5:45 p.m.) is indicating a band of snow is approaching from the west—snow likely to be reinforced by lake moisture riding NE winds. So the snow’s not done as of this posting—but will end later tonight. It’s not the last snow likely to occur here in the coming week. Though glorious (and welcome) sunshine is due Wednesday—more snow is predicted Thursday (Valentine’s Day) night. The area’s lack of February sun is running at record levels. Only 12% of Chicago’s possible sun has occurred—February’s “normal” tally is 46%.

More on WGN-TV’s Nine O’Clock News Tuesday evening, on our wgntv.com “weather blog” and in Wednesday’s Chicago Tribune.

Tom Skilling
WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist


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Photo courtesy: Tracey Surface, Chicago

Cold air could add inches to Tuesday's fluffy snow

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Snowfall and water content

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Snow to sneak back in after blustery, bitter cold

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--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

From Bitter Cold to Snow

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Chicago's Snowfall This Winter

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Frigid temperatures, dangerous windchills Sunday

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--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Sunny but Frigid Sunday

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Average Dates of Springlike Temps

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Wind-driven 50-degree plunge includes snow punch

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--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

Sunday's Potent Cold

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Ice Down the Mississippi River

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BRINGING THE ARCTIC TO ARLINGTON HEIGHTS

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Last Wednesday's snowstorm provided a perfect environment for some winter fun. Emily and Amanda Page and their mother Katie, a science teacher at Rolling Meadows High School, took advantage of the day off from school to build an igloo and a snowman.

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Photo by Katie Page

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Photo by Katie Page

A mountain of snow covers north suburban Round Lake Beach

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North suburban areas, like Round Lake Beach pictured here, sit beneath a literal pile of snow in the wake of Wednesday's mammoth snowstorm there. These photos from Pam Sobieski illustrate the point spectacularly. Great shots! Thanks, Pam!
--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photos courtesy: Pam Sobieski

This 'snow family' asks 'Which way to some sunshine?'

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Mark E. Soya, taking advantage of our a generous snowpack, e-mails this "snow family" picture. He informs us the family members pictured are asking "Which way to some sunshine? We seem to be feeling a little under the weather lately!" Thanks for the photo and the sense of humor, Mark!
--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photo courtesy: Mark E. Soya

Dreary February becoming 1 for the record books

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--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

Brutal cold, gusty winds hit Saturday

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Winter's Coldest Places

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Few areas were hit any harder in Wednesday's snowstorm than Waukegan as these photos from our friend and pilot Anson Mount illustrate. He took these at Waukegan Airport Thursday morning! Thanks as always, Anson! Great shots!

--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photos courtesy: Anson Mount

It may have snowed big-time in north suburban Lake Zurich Wednesday, but the wait for the morning school bus goes on! Our thanks to Anne Meny for this shot of her son preparing to head off to school Thursday morning in the wake of the big storm the day before amid mountains of snow! It’s a great shot -- thanks for sharing it with us, Anne!
--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photo courtesy: Anne Meny, Lake Zurich

Snowfall tops a foot just 30 miles north of Chicago's Loop

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--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

Arctic Blast Hits This Weekend

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Winter Thunderstorm Heights

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These dramatic storm-in-progress photos were sent to us by Roger Townsend of Stockton in northwest Illinois, located west/northwest of Rockford toward Galena. That area was situated in the same heavy snow band which left up to 21 inches of new snow on the ground near Orfordville, Wis., (just west/northwest of Beloit) east to Lake and McHenry counties. Many thanks to Roger Stockton.
--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photos courtesy: Roger Stockton

Far southern suburbs only grazed by storm’s flurries

Winter's latest snowstorm is finally winding down after producing whiteout conditions much of the day across Chicago's northwest and northern suburbs. Through 4 p.m., snow totals have reached and, in some areas, exceeded 14 inches from sections of northeast Iowa east across Galena, Rockford and into Lake and McHenry counties in northern Illinois north into southern Wisconsin.

While our Frank Wachowski reports just 1.9 inches is down at Midway Airport, 3.7 inches has fallen at O’Hare (the snow's still falling so we expect these tallies to rise modestly). Arlington Heights’ snow tally has reached 10 inches, and Mundelein's been hit with 9.4 inches of the heavy wet snow.

But, the heaviest amounts of all fell in the counties adjacent to and north of the Illinois/Wisconsin line. Totals there range from nearly 14 inches at Rockford and 13.9 inches at Beach Park (near Waukegan) to an estimated 16 inches near Winthrop Harbor.

Our WGN-TV observers indicate they've had to plow driveways and sidewalks as many as four times today alone to clear the snowfall. Visibilities from Arlington Heights north into southern Wisconsin have frequently dropped to 1/4 mile or less. One caller from Russell in northern Lake County told me he couldn't see his neighbor's home next door earlier this afternoon and advised no one travel up that way!

A note of caution -- this is heavy, high water-content snow -- what's been referred to as “heart-attack” snow. Shovel with care!

Enjoy these photos sent to us from Antioch, Illinois by Carl Frystak! THANKS Carl for sending them along!

--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photos courtesy: Carl Frystak

The snow scene in northwest suburban Arlington Heights

Our friend Curt Renz shares this photo with us taken around 4:45 p.m. Wednesday afternoon at North School Park in Arlington Heights. Thanks Curt!

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Photo courtesy: Curt Renz

Nearly 10 inches of snow has accumulated near Barrington, as is evident in this terrific photo from Steven Smith. Thanks for sending this along, Steven.

An update: Snowfall at Woodstock in McHenry County has reached 14 inches according to National Weather Service Cooperative observers.
--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photo courtesy: Steven L. Smith

Heavy rains provoke flooding downstate

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Wednesday's storm has dumped heavy rain from Chicago’s southern suburbs to areas south. Paul Hadfield shares these shots of water surging down the spillway off Lake Decatur in the wake of all the rain. Thanks Paul!
--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photos courtesy: Paul Hadfield, Decatur, Ill.

Understanding the Weather: Feb. 6, 2008

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Chicago snow extremes in February
(1885-2007)

snowiest February ... 27.8" in 1896

biggest February snowstorm ... 13.4" Feb. 6-7, 1895

least snowy February ... 0.0" in 1987 and 1998

Chicago threatened by possible record snowfall

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The mix of precipitation to which Chicagoans rise Wednesday is but the first stage of a massive winter storm that threatens to produce one of the city’s biggest snows of the last nine years before it’s done. Weather conditions threaten to go downhill quickly from Chicago to the west and north as the intensifying system entrains cold air while being energized by the arrival of powerful jet stream winds in the morning. A wintry mix of sleet, snow and rain (mainly snow far north and mainly rain far south) switches to heavy snow and thundersnow in mid- to late morning over much of the northern half of the metro area (from Chicago north and west) whipped by strengthening northeast winds. Spells of near whiteout conditions threaten. Given the extraordinary amount of moisture this storm’s rotary circulation is expected to force back into the colder air quickly taking charge in Chicago, a consensus of computer projections is showing 8- to 14-inch snowfalls from Chicago west and north. That places the system’s snowfall among the five biggest since 1999.

STORM LEAVES UP TO 10 INCHES IN THE PLAINS

Although early snows accumulated 2-4 inches along and north of the Wisconsin border and west to Iowa late Tuesday, up to 10 inches was reported in western Kansas near Goodland.

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Windchill formula

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Understanding the Weather: Feb. 6, 2008

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Drizzle: Liquid precipitation composed of very small water droplets (0.001 to 0.020 inch in diameter) that appear almost to float while following air currents. Unlike fog, drizzle falls to the ground. It is erroneous to refer to very light rain as drizzle.

Drizzle, fog, mist: All three are composed of tiny water droplets that appear to float in the air. Drizzle droplets are large enough so that they do fall, and therefore drizzle is precipitation. Fog and mist droplets are smaller and do not fall and are not precipitation.

Fog: A visible aggregate of water droplets suspended in the air at ground level. Fog is literally a cloud on the ground. Fog droplets are so tiny that they do not fall through the air, and fog is therefore not considered to be precipitation.

Freezing rain: Rain that falls into a shallow layer of subfreezing air at the ground (usually only several hundred feet deep) and freezes upon impact to form a coating of glaze on exposed objects.

Rain:Liquid precipitation in the form of water drops with diameters greater than 0.020 inch. Drizzle, the only other form of liquid precipitation, consists of droplets 0.020 inch in diameter or smaller.

Sleet: Precipitation in the form of small ice pellets. Sleet forms when raindrops (or largely melted snowflakes), originating in warmer air aloft, fall through a layer of subfreezing air at ground level and then freeze on their way down. Sleet is often referred to as ice pellets in weather observations.

We’re boosting our Chicago accumulation forecasts further, a foot or more of snow likely in parts of the city—much lighter amounts south

The early onset of snow suggests even higher storm snow totals are likely in the city. Expectations precipitation would start as a rain/sleet mixture in the northern suburbs due to a layer of warm air aloft have NOT materialized suggesting northeast winds have injected a layer of drier air in the lower atmosphere producing evaporative cooling there. That’s why snow has begun as soon as it has. This means assumptions that the first hours of this storm’s precipitation would come down as liquid or a mix must be updated and that moisture must be added to our predicted snow tally. As a result, it now appears likely 8-14” will fall from Chicago north and west. The presence of potential thunderstorms could lead to locally higher totals. Our latest in-house RPM (Rapid Precision Mesocale) model forecast now puts totals at 13” at O’Hare and 10” at Midway. The University of Wisconsin NMS model is even suggesting 12-18” totals in portions of northern Illinois.

Thus a major winter storm, by far this winter’s biggest to date, looks likely to produce serious travel problems well into Wednesday. We’ll update as new information becomes available.

Tom Skilling

Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Paul Hadfield, on his way to work Monday night, captured the dramatic lightning spawned by the evening’s powerful late winter thunderstorms. At one point, lightning data indicated as many as 800 cloud to ground strokes from the storms, some towering to heights of 42,000 ft. according to Doppler radar cloud top scans, in just a 10 minute period.  Paul tells us:
 
“Right about when it was time to go to work last night, the heaven's opened up with an incredible deluge. It also turned into a giant lightning fest, the likes of which I haven't seen since last June.”
 
 
Many thanks, Paul, for sharing the spectacular shots with us!
 
Tom Skilling
WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

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Photos courtesy: Paul Hadfield, Decatur, Illinois

Major winter storm on the way; 5-14” accumulations a good bet city, north and west -- tapering to an inch or two far south where heavy rains and flooding are a threat.

The fourth significant snow of the past two weeks, and potentially the winter’s biggest yet, is bearing down on the area. Chicago proper isn’t likely to escape a major accumulation. Current indications, gleaned from a suite of more than a dozen computer models, suggest the city is to register 5-10” totals—while areas just north and northwest, including McHenry, Lake, Ogle, Winnebago and even much of DeKalb and Kane Counties, may record SOME accumulations as high as 12-14” if current forecast trends verify. Any shift in the predicted storm track would necessitate adjustments to our prediction of accumulation and the placement of the heaviest snowfall. In addition, the potential for some embedded thunderstorms within the snow area isn’t out of the question. The intense bursts of snowfall such thunderstorms produce could produce locally higher totals, even in the city. The storm is likely to reach peak intensity in the hours before daybreak and through much of Wednesday morning. That’s when upward vertical motion generated beneath the nose of a powerful 110+ mph band of jet stream winds is to strongest. Upward motion enhances cloud and precipitation development and the potential for embedded thunderstorms, capable of especially intense bursts of snowfall, may occur. At that time, strengthening NE winds are predicted to reach 20-30 mph with gusts, which raises the risk for some blowing and drifting of the snow, especially in open areas.

With temperatures within striking distance of freezing during much of this precipitation event, the snow which falls is to be heavy and fairly wet -- what’s often referred to as “good packing” or “heart attack” snow. The weight of such snow means it must be shoveled with extreme care to avoid a heart attack. While many snowstorms produce a snow to water ratio of 10 or 12 to 1, it’s likely this storm’s snow/water ratio will be closer to 8 to 1.

South suburbanites, including many northwest Indiana suburbs and areas south of the city in Illinois, are likely to see MUCH lower snow totals if current forecast trends hold. Accumulations are likely to taper quickly as one moves south from Chicago to as little as 1-3” far southern sections toward Kankakee and Rensselaer, Indiana. In fact, it’s quite possible precipitation may still be falling in liquid form or as a mix as Wednesday begins, even as full blown snowstorm conditions cover an area from much of the city of Chicago on north and west.

Snow and sleet have already overspread the Chicago area as this update is being released at 4 p.m. Snow was first reported in McHenry County west to Rockford and across northwest Illinois in the last two hours. Rain is coming down across the southern suburbs. As the developing storm entrains more cold air, the mix of sleet, snow and rain is shift to ALL snow from Chicago north and west- with possible embedded thunder and lightning. Snow is to fall much of the day Wednesday, heaviest into the early afternoon then more occasional.

We continue to monitor this system and will have a complete update on our 5:55 pm WGN report and on Tuesday evening’s Nine O’Clock News.

Tom Skilling
Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Precipitation cocktail to shift to snow--with thunder

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Chicago winters of the late 1970s

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Understanding the Weather: Feb. 4, 2008

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Chicago's snowiest Februarys
1885-2007 snowfall data

27.8" 1896
26.2" 1994
23.7" 1980
22.6" 1900
22.5" 1967

Snow burst blankets Chicago area with 2 to 5 inches

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--By Steve Kahn, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Chicago's Next Snow Threat: Tuesday Night

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Chicago's Total Snowfall

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Understanding the Weather: Feb. 2, 2008

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Chicago's biggest February snowstorms
(1885-2007)

13.4" Feb 6-7, 1895
12.8" Feb 18-19, 1908
12.7" Feb 6-7, 1933
12.5" Feb 3-4, 1896
12.2" Feb 3-4, 1901
12.0" Feb 12-13, 1896

City is bracing for 3 more shots of snow this week

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Chicago's cold January 1994 temperatures

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Snapshots In the Storm's Aftermath: Snow in Elmhurst

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Nearly 10" of snow fell Thursday into Friday morning at west suburban Elmhurst. The season's heaviest accumulation to date along with a much greater frequency of snowfall this season is playing havoc with the city's salt supply and snow removal as evidenced by these photos. With weekend temperatures expected to surge just above freezing, some minor thawing is expected before a new snow threat Sunday night.
--By Bill Snyder, WGN-TV Weather Producer

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Photos courtesy of Liz Valliyil

Since 1928, only 7 seasons snowier than this one

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Next Snow Threats: Sunday Night and Election Day

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Source of the Sun's Heat

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