U.S. hurricane threat is far from over

Floridians and residents of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula have good reason to monitor Tropical Storm Wilma in coming days. The late season storm faces no obvious obstacles to developing into a major hurricane over the western Caribbean and appears on a track which may affect both areas. The latest forecasts have Wilma’s sustained winds reaching at least 115 m.p.h. thanks to exceptionally light winds above the storm, which eliminate the kind of wind shear—the shift in wind direction and speed in the storm’s environment—responsible for disrupting hurricane intensification. Sea surface temperatures beneath the storm remain very warm, and to impressive depths—another factor which favors strengthening.
Of the 22 hurricanes since 1851 known to have come ashore in the U.S. beyond October 18, 17 have made landfall in Florida. Their intensities have ranged from Saffir-Simpson scale Category 1 (winds 74 to 95 m.p.h.) to Category 4 (winds 131-155 m.p.h.) intensity.