The strength of the newly declared El Niño in the Pacific may play an important role in this winter’s weather here. El Niños occur when easterly trade winds weaken over the Pacific Ocean west of South America and ocean temperatures warm. Global weather shifts are tied to the event over as much as 70% of the planet when El Niños occur.
Moderate and strong El Niños often boost winter temperatures, reducing snowfall here—sometimes dramatically—in 67% of the winters during which have occurred since 1950. But, the impact of weaker El Niños can be quite different. An analysis of those winters indicates 55%—including several in the barbarically cold late 1970s—have produced near or below normal temperatures and more snow. That’s why all eyes in the meteorological community will be on trends in the strength of the new El Niño in coming months.
-Tom Skilling
WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist Tom Skilling and the WGN Weather Center staff provide daily coverage of weather in the Chicago area.
