Cool, wet falls (like this one) seldom signal snowy winters

With autumn 2006 running so cool and wet in Chicago, it would be natural to assume the winter ahead might continue the trend and turn exceptionally snowy. In the world of seasonal weather forecasting, no possibility can be completely ruled out. Yet, an analysis of the 11 snow seasons which have followed the area’s wettest autumns since 1885 indicate only four—that’s just 36 percent of them—have produced exceptional amounts of snow. In some cases, the totals have been very impressive, like the 82.3” of snow which fell in the 1977-78 season. But, the majority—the other 64 percent—have hosted far less than 39” of snow, which is Chicago’s long-term average since official records began here in 1885.
A warming of the equatorial Pacific and decline in the strength of the easterly winds there—the phenomenon referred to as El Niño—has also tended to suppress winter snowfall. We’ll continue to monitor conditions leading into the coming cold season.
--By Tom Skilling, WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist