The Farmer's Almanac -- always a fun read but an anathema to long-range forecasters
in the meteorological and climate communities -- is out with a forecast of a cold,
snowy winter ahead. It's a prediction at odds with the outlook for Winter 2008-09
produced by NOAA forecasters who project above normal temperatures and near
normal precipitation. We've been doing our own research on winters that have followed
summers with few 90s and looked at winters between El NiÒos and La NiÒas -- 27 of
them since 1950 -- because computer projections of equatorial Pacific conditions
predict that's what's ahead. Among our findings: These winters can be volatile, some
featuring large temperature swings as arctic and Pacific air duel it out. While the
number of warmer and colder than normal winters were nearly equal in these years,
there was a discernible trend for the cold winters to be significantly colder than normal.
By contrast, mild winters tended to by only modestly milder than normal. The
temperatures of all 27 winters averaged more than 1-degree below normal. The split
between snowy and not-so-snowy winters was nearly even. While full-season snowfall
averaged out near the Chicago average of 38.6 inches, winters with big snows had
some really big snows: among them 89.7 inches (1978-79).
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune
