November 2008 Archives

Monday morning's snow will be the final vestiges of Sunday's storm, but only the start
of what promises to be a cold and snowy open to December and meteorological winter
2008-09. While the city was spared a major snowfall as warmth from Lake Michigan's
38-degree water kept much of Sunday's precipitation as rain, colder inland areas were
whitened by the season's first significant snow. By late Sunday evening, snow totals
were in the 3- to 5-inch range west of the Fox Valley while areas closer to the lake were
hard-pressed to measure more than an inch. Even though O'Hare International Airport
officially recorded just minor amounts of snowfall through 9 p.m. Sunday, the
combination of rain and melted snow was enough to make fall 2008 the wettest on
record here.

NEXT SNOW THREAT: WEDNESDAY
Two more snow systems threaten the city this week: one on Wednesday and another on
Saturday. An ensemble of computer models indicate that snowfall in the week ahead
could top 8 inches.
Significant snowstorms in early December have been fairly common here recently with
the biggest storm coming Dec. 10-11, 2000, when 9.6 inches fell.
--By Steve Kahn, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Dear Tom,
I have memories of the oppressively hot Chicago summer of 1954. What kind of
winter followed?
John Jacob, Oak Park
Dear John,
The summer of 1954 was indeed a hot one in Chicago with 36 days when the
mercury reached 90 degrees or higher. There was one day of triple-digit
heat: June 25 with a maximum temperature of 100. The winter that followed
was one of Chicago's warmer ones, averaging 28.5 degrees or nearly 2 degrees
above the long-term winter average temperature of 26.7 degrees. It ranks as
the 46th warmest of 138 Chicago winters since 1870-71. Snowfall was subpar
with a season total of only 32.2 inches, substantially below the city's
current normal of about 40 inches. The snowiest month was December with 8.2
inches, followed by 6.5 inches in both January and February.

Meteorological winter begins Monday and the season should open with a bang as the
city braces for a major snowstorm.

Sunday will begin with some light snow that could mix with rain as a layer of warmer air
moves in from the lake. How- ever as the day wears on, the storm will strengthen over
Indiana drawing in colder air. This will set the stage for a prolonged period of moderate
to heavy snow, followed by several hours of lake effect that could add several inches to
the total. In the dead of winter in a cold environment this storm could potentially
produce 1 foot or more of snow. However, factors such as Lake Michigan water
temperatures in the upper 30s and warm ground and pavement from recent mild days
will allow some of the snow to melt as it falls in the storm's early stages. This could cut
accumulations especially in the city.

NORTHERN INDIANA MAY GET BLASTED

The track of the storm through northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio suggests that the
system's heaviest snow will eventually target areas east and south of Chicago.
Combined with additional snow from lake effect, it appears that portions of north
central Indiana could eventually end up with 1 foot or more of snow.

Dear Tom,
How does "black ice" differ from regular ice, if it does?
-Dr. Leon J. Hoffman, Chicago
Dear Dr. Hoffman,

Black ice is just regular ice that forms in a thin layer on roads or sidewalks. It is almost
invisible because it takes on the color of the underlying pavement, which on asphalt
surfaces is black. It poses a major problem for unsuspecting motorists and pedestrians
who have been traveling on dry pavement and suddenly encounter loss of traction, failing
to realize they are on an icy surface. Black ice forms when moisture refreezes after a
snowmelt, from freezing drizzle, windblown snow or frozen condensation. The term
originally was used to describe a thin layer of ice on a pond or lake, but in recent years its
usage to describe a road hazard has become predominate.

A storm -- the byproduct of powerhouse jet-stream winds that roared into western
Canada at 220 m.p.h. late Friday -- is to spin up over eastern North America over the
weekend. While not expected to be a mammoth precipitation-producer in Chicago on
Sunday into Monday morning, it may generate the first accumulations of non-lake-effect
snow here this season. The form the precipitation takes -- a wet snow or a rain/snow mix
over at least part of the metro area Sunday, trending to all snow at night -- has not been
definitively settled. But, the potential for at least some accumulation, possibly enhanced
by lake-effect snow showers Sunday night, seems pretty solid. A suite of computer
projections places likely water-equivalent precipitation tallies in the 0.20 to 0.35-inch
range. Were that to come as all snow, it could fluff up to 1 to 4 inches. But, the first
accumulations of the season -- this one included -- occur on warm ground and
pavement amid winds off the still "warm" waters of Lake Michigan. That can cut into snow
totals -- or even lead to a rain/snow mix at times.
Snow measurements over the past 124 years indicate the chance of at least an inch of
snow by Dec. 1 in Chicago is 60 percent.
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
In Chicago, which calendar date has the greatest deviation between the
record high temperature for the date and the record low temperature on that
same date? My guess is that it occurs sometime in March.
Bruce Brothers, Marengo, Ill.
Dear Bruce,
Actually, it happened in January -- Jan. 20, to be specific.
On that date in 1906, Chicago's temperature jumped to 63 degrees,
establishing a record high for the date, and on Jan. 20, 1985, the city
shivered at 27 degrees below zero, the record low for the date (and also the
city's all-time lowest temperature in official records dating from Nov. 1,
1870).
The range between those two temperatures (63 degrees and 27 below) is 90
degrees, and that stands as the greatest deviation between the record high
and record low temperatures on any single day of the year.

Thanks for joining us for this Friday edition of Before the Forecast! After another pleasant day we can expect to see more of the same for tomorrow. Temperatures will reach the mid 40s for Saturday, but for Sunday, the weather is looking much different. Tom Skilling has all the details on Tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in on Monday for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Quiet holiday weather continues through Saturday -- a boon for area shoppers and
Midwest travelers -- but evidence grows that homeward-bound travelers may have to
contend with snow on Sunday.
A moderate-intensity storm system is to spin-up over the region. A series of computer
model precipitation estimates, as well as a variety of snowfall forecast techniques, hint
at the potential for some sticking snow. As always with early cold season systems,
precise estimates on the totals likely to occur are complicated by the warm ground and
the lingering warmth of Lake Michigan's water this time of year. But it appears possible
that several inches of snow may occur at some locations -- totals that could be
enhanced by four to six hours of lake-effect snow showers Sunday night into Monday
morning.

RAINS DRENCH ARIZONA AND NEVADA DESERTS
WHILE NOVEMBER SNOW HITS 60 INCHES AT VALDEZ, ALASKA
While heavy rains fell Thursday over parts of Arizona and Nevada, in Valdez, Alaska, a
whopping 13 inches of snow fell on Thanksgiving. As a result, 2008 ranks among the
top 10 snowiest Novembers there, with 60 inches recorded so far this month.
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
You reported that the record low for Nov. 21 was 1 degree set back in 1880.
How accurate is that measurement, and where in Chicago was it taken?
Tim Guimond, Evanston
Dear Tim,
That 1-degree record low on Nov. 21, 1880, was taken downtown at the city's
official observation site, then located at the Roanoke Building on the
southeast corner of Madison and LaSalle. The reading is quite accurate as
the temperature was measured with high-quality thermometers that recorded
the highest and lowest values for the day. It should be noted that the
record low of 1 degree was taken in the heart of the city, and it was even
colder that morning in outlying areas such as Elgin, which logged 3 below
zero. The high that afternoon was only 11 degrees, and that frigid reading
also established a record low maximum for Nov. 21.

These are pictures sure to delight the snow enthusiasts. Dave Noble of the National
Weather Service in Valdez, Alaska, who keeps us posted on the weather there, sends us
these pictures of the Thanksgiving Day snowstorm which has hit that south Alaskan
community. Check these out--they're VERY IMPRESSIVE! Dave writes:

"We have received over 60 inches of snowfall this month so far which puts us in
the top 10 snowiest Novembers. In the last 24 hours we have received over 13 inches
of snow in Valdez... An area of low pressure south of the Prince William Sound brought
in Gulf of Alaska moisture over the top of cold air sitting in Port Valdez (kind of like an
overrunning event). Yesterday morning we had an upper-level trough move through
with a south to north moving cold front... I have been here 3 years and still can't get
over the idea of a cold front moving north... Well that cold air in place allowed the
snow to be more of a colder/drier snow last evening and as the atmosphere warmed,
the flakes became fat. It's still snowing this morning with a current snow depth of 28"
as of 9 a.m. AST."

Dave, you’re great! MANY THANKS for sharing these with us and Happy Thanksgiving!

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Photos courtesy of Dave Noble, National Weather Service-Valdez, Alaska

The Thanksgiving weekend is to remain free of weather woes until Sunday when an
intensifying storm may take center stage. A high of 45 degrees is predicted Thursday
-- 12 degrees milder than the popular holiday was a year ago. It's a temperature which
places this Thanksgiving among the mildest 35 percent of the past half century.

Many details on just how the wintry late-weekend weather is to unfold for holiday
travelers remain hazy. But weather history tells us December's arrival -- on Monday --
marks the start of Chicago's snowiest four months. The period hosts 93 percent of the
city's biggest snowstorms. Much about Sunday's weather depends on the future track
of low pressure predicted to spin-up over the Midwest, dropping from Minnesota into
central Illinois then sweeping northeast toward Lake Erie where it is to slow down.

CALIFORNIA STORM DOUSES THE SOUTH WITH A FULL MONTH OF
RAIN

Heavy rains totaling more than 3 inches in spots doused southern California. The
deluge flooded sections of Santa Barbara and Burbank. Phoenix recorded its first
measurable rain in 86 days.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
Why don't we see lightning during snowstorms?
Cornelia Hatland, Evanston

Dear Cornelia,
Lightning does sometimes occur during snowstorms, and meteorologists have a
colloquial name for the phenomenon: thundersnow. It's a rare event, occurring in the
Chicago area only a few times in a given 10-year period.

The opaqueness of snowflakes and their sound-muffling fluffiness greatly limit the
distance that lightning can be seen or thunder heard during thundersnow events.
Typically during snowstorms, moist but relatively stable air flows gently up and over
colder air; it cools as it ascends and its moisture condenses into snow.

On rare occasions when a vigorous low pressure system is passing across the region
and it has drawn unstable air, usually of Gulf origin, into its wind system, the moist air
will surge into powerful rising currents that build into bona fide thunderstorms.

Thanks for joining us for this Wednesday edition of Before the Forecast! From our latest model runs, it appears this Thanksgiving will be warmer with temperatures in the upper 40s. Some more cold weather is expected for next week. Tom Skilling has all the details on Tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Jim Marocchi was cycling on the Fermilab grounds Sunday just after 3 P.M.
and notice the halo (ring around the sun) produced as sunlight passed
through incoming high clouds. He snapped this photo and was good enough
to share it with us. THANKS Jim!!

Tom Skilling

Photo courtesy of Jim Marocchi, Winfield, Illinois

The persistent chill of recent days moderates only slightly Wednesday as Thanksgiving
approaches. The three surges of cold air over the past week have put November's
temperature ranking in free-fall. The month's average temp -- once the mildest for a
November in the past 31 years -- has slipped to 40.3 degrees -- 1.2 degrees below
the 137-year average. That places November 2008 among the coldest 35 percent of
Novembers on record here since 1871.

Travel weather in the Midwest couldn't be much better as the Thanksgiving holiday gets
under way. But snow may occur before the holiday weekend ends. The moderately
colder air that hits with flurries Friday is followed by a stronger cold outbreak Sunday
and Monday which could interact with a buckling jet stream and some lake moisture to
generate snow here.

CALIFORNIA RESIDENT FEAR MUDSLIDES AS FIRST STORM OF RAINY SEASON
HITS

More rain may fall from San Diego to Los Angeles in the region's first storm of the
annual rainy season than typically falls in an entire November. Phoenix will see its first
measurable rain in 86 days.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
I've noticed that mild fall and spring days often experience large temperature drops
with rain changing to snow. What is Chicago's warmest day that has had measurable
snow?

Mike Velez

Dear Mike,
Chicago's weather has a reputation for rapid change and the passage of a strong cold
front is often the culprit. Climatologist Frank Wachowski notes at least 10 days since
1871 when the city has logged a temperature of 60 degrees or higher and had a
measurable snow. On April 22, 1910 the mercury peaked at a balmy 65 degrees then
crashed to 35 by midnight with 0.1 inch of snow. That little bit of snow was only the
beginning. Snow continued intermittently for the next four days with more than 6
inches falling through April 26. However, in true Chicago fashion, a rapid warm-up
followed and by April 29 the mercury soared to a summery 86 degrees.

Thanks for joining us for this Thursday edition of Before the Forecast! Turkey day is shaping up to be pleasant with warm temperatures and fair skies, changes may be in the forecast for the weekend. Tom Skilling has all the details on Tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to our weather interns Vanessa Vincente and Aaron Brackett, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

The International Space Station (ISS) has been visible from the Midwest in recent nights.
Paul Hadfield shares his photos of the ISS as it passes over downstate Warrensburg,
Illinois—they are terrific! Paul tells us:

"It had been in an orbital pattern where it's been drifting nearly overhead.
Appearing as a bright light rising to the west at dusk, it leaves a long streak dependent
upon how long the shutter is open. Between it and the pairing of Venus and Jupiter,
November has been a great month for astronomical viewing."

THANKS Paul!

Tom Skilling

Photos courtesy of Paul Hadfield, Warrensburg, Illinois

The third cold surge of the past week -- the weakest among them -- is in control as
Tuesday dawns. The day is predicted to become the 11th in a string of consecutive
below-normal days. The latest surge's arrival Monday produced a period of early
morning snow over sections of the Chicago area with only brief accumulations on
grassy surfaces mainly north and west of the city. The day's above-freezing
temperatures melted it quickly. Weather records since 2000 indicate Dec. 5 has been
the average date on which an inch of snow has accumulated without melting right
away.

Chicago's meteorological autumn has averaged 54.0 degrees -- 3.3-degrees cooler
than the same a period a year ago. It has increased the need for home heating an
estimated 20 percent.

MONTH ON TRACK TO BECOME ONE OF THE FEW NOVEMBERS WITHOUT A
LAST-HALF 50+-DEGREE HIGH

Since 1928, an average of five 50-degree or warmer days have occurred in the last half
of November. However, November 2008 is likely to become just the 6th November in
the past 8 decades to fail to see at least one 50-degree or higher day.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
If hurricanes feed off of water that is evaporated and if that occurs when the air
pressure is quite low, does this mean the boiling point of water varies depending on the
air pressure?
Carl Rollberg, Calumet Park, Ill.

Dear Carl,

Changes in air pressure do, indeed, affect the temperature at which water boils. The
boiling temperature falls as air pressure decreases (and as elevation increases).

Water, even cold water, evaporates at all temperature and air pressure values, and air
pressure is not a factor in providing moisture in hurricanes. Air pressure is not low
during the formative stage of a hurricane, and water vapor, from the evaporation of sea
water, is fueling the developing storm even then.

At sea level, water boils at 212 degrees; at 620 feet (Chicago's elevation), it boils at 211
degrees; but 1,450 feet up (the top of Sears Tower), at 208 degrees; in Denver, 202
degrees.

Thanks for joining us for this Monday edition of Before the Forecast! After only reaching 38 degrees here in Chicago, and receiving minor accumulations out in our western suburbs, there is a slight warm up in store for Thanksgiving. Tom Skilling has all the details on tonight's Before the Forecast. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Mark Vogan, who keeps in touch with us from Glasgow, Scotland, says snow there in
November is hardly a common event---certainly not in recent Novembers. That's one
reason this early Sunday morning snow was a real eye-catcher. Nearly an inch of snow
accumulated and Mark reports his drive to work around 4:35 am was a slippery one. Mark
tells us higher elevations received several inches of snow. THANKS for keeping us posted,
Mark!

Tom Skilling

Terry and Jackie Wagner forwards us this photo of a beautiful Snow Owl perched on a car
outside the Condon Consulting Engineers Office Friday in Ringwood, Illinois. It's a great
shot! Thanks Jackie!

Tom Skilling

Photo courtesy of Terry and Jackie Wagner and James Condon, Ringwood, Illinois

Monday morning's brief snow produce a 0.1 inch accumulation at O'Hare--just a trace
was recorded at Midway---and was enough to build a small snowman in some
northwest suburbs, out toward Arlington Heights and Mundelein in particular. Our
friend and regular picture contributor Anson Mount sends us this photo of the morning
snow cover in Algonquin where an inch of fast melting snow was on the ground briefly.

Thanks for the photo Anson!

Tom Skilling

Photo courtesy of Anson Mount, Algonquin, Illinois

As a fast-moving cold front moves east through Indiana, Chicago will be the recipient
of cold air and snow showers riding blustery northwest winds. Early morning may well
see some snow accumulate on grassy areas to the north and northwest. Commuters
could also experience slick spots on some untreated roads as temperatures fall below
freezing. By this afternoon, sun may emerge as snow showers diminish to occasional
flurries.
Cold high pressure will hold through Tuesday, and then a slight warming should occur
midweek. In fact, Thanksgiving Day may be the warmest of the week, just ahead of the
next surge of cold air expected Friday.

STORM TRACK OVER SOUTHERN U.S.
For the next couple weeks, the primary jet stream aloft and main storm track will flow
west-to-east through the southern United States.This will most likely mean slight
precipitation and on the average cooler-than-normal temperatures for southern
Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. However, it may foretell trouble for
southern California, where recent fires have denuded ground cover, leaving the area
susceptible to heavy rains, the first of which may occur Tuesday.
--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Dear Tom,
How do the heavy rains of last September compare to those of historical
record? My guess is that they were significant, but not the worst. I believe
urban development has exacerbated the flood effects of heavy rains like the
September rains.
Michael Katso, Munster, Ind.
Dear Michael,
The massive rains that swamped metropolitan Chicago in September were among
the heaviest, but, as you correctly noted, not the very worst. With 13.63
inches of rain, September 2008 was the city's third-wettest month ever,
behind August 1987 (17.10 inches) and September 1961 (14.17 inches).
However, rain of any given amount now produces more runoff and higher river
crests than ever before because urbanization increases the runoff of
rainwater up to six times what would occur on natural terrain. As the city
area grows and more land is made impervious to water absorption by roofs and
concrete, the flood threat also grows.

As winds pick up from the southwest, Saturday's nearly 10 degrees below normal temperatures quickly reverse climbing well into the mid 40s Sunday. This brief warm-up will be short-lived as a strong cold front is forecast to move through northeast Illinois early Monday, preceded by thickening clouds and rain Sunday night and followed by wet snow as temperatures fall. By midday Monday, northwest winds with gusts approaching 30 m.p.h. will usher in falling temperatures along with occasional snow showers. Tuesday looks to be the coldest day of the week with high temps struggling to reach 32 degrees.

STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
The reminder of the week should see the primary west-east jet stream flow aloft established far to the south from the southern Plains through the Gulf Coast states. Storms will track through the southern states, and while a steady northwest flow aloft will prevail over the Midwest, abundant sunshine will allow northern Illinois to warm up enough during the day to allow readings to approach late fall "normals." Computer models hint at a realignment of the jet stream the next week, giving it a colder north-south trajectory over this area.

--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Dear Tom,
What are the Chicago records for the most days with rain, and also the most days
without even a trace of rain?
-Miguel Vasquez

Dear Miguel,
On average, Chicago receives measurable precipitation (0.01 inch or more) on one day out
of three, but the reality is that wet days tend to cluster together, as do dry days. In official
weather records dating from Nov. 1, 1870, Chicago’s longest dry spell was lengthy
enough literally to constitute a mini-drought: 22 days, Sept. 2-23, 1979. Not one drop of
rain fell during that period. The greatest number of consecutive wet days is 11, registered
on two occasions: Aug. 24-Sept. 3, 1880, and May 15-25, 1949. Rain wasn’t continuous,
but measurable rain fell on each of the days. Rain totals in those wet spells were 3.62
inches and 2.25 inches, respectively.

Chicago-area temperatures failed to escape the teens and 20s Friday. For eight
bone-chilling hours, from 1 through 8 a.m., windchills -- reflecting the combined effect
of the wind and cold -- hovered in single digits. Highs at O'Hare and Midway Airports
struggled to 29 degrees -- far from the 44-degree normal high -- the coldest daytime
readings here since early March. Long-term weather records reveal cold air of that
intensity doesn't typically arrive for another 10 days.
The series of cold blasts over the past two weeks have slashed nearly 16 degrees off the
month's average temperature, squelching the warmest November open of the past 31
years. Six days into the month, November 2008 averaged 57.8 degrees and ranked 4th
warmest of the past 137 years. That ranking has slipped an astonishing 72 slots as
November's average temperature has plunged to just 41.9 degrees. The month is now only
the 76th warmest of all Novembers since 1871.
Flurries are possible with a weak disturbance Saturday. But Sunday should burst into the
40s before cold air hits again with a possible switch from rain to wet snow late Sunday
night into Monday. It's conceivable some of the snow could stick.
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
During a recent stay in Hawaii, we experienced a day of wonderful tropic
rain. A local insisted that Hawaii never gets thunderstorms because of the
islands' isolation in the Pacific waters. Can this be true? Why?
C. Michael Becker
Dear C.,
Surrounded as they are by unceasingly mild ocean waters, 75-82 degrees
through the year, the Hawaiian Islands rarely experience a day above 90
degrees. And because of the Islands' subtropical location, the atmosphere
above them is relatively mild to a height of several miles.
Thunderstorms, though, are children of a thermally unstable atmosphere: hot
air at the surface, very cold air aloft. Those conditions rarely prevail in
Hawaii, and strong Hawaiian thunderstorms are correspondingly rare, but
"never" is a powerful word. Honolulu averages seven weak thunderstorms
annually, Hilo 10, Kahului four.

Jim Bayne, despite the cold and wind, forwards us this shot of the waves recent gusty,
cold northwest winds have churned up along the Chicago shoreline. The photo was taken
on Oak Street Beach on Thursday. Great shot, Jim! MANY THANKS for sharing it with us!!
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Photo courtesy of Jim Bayne, Chicago

Thanks for joining us for this Friday edition of Before the Forecast! After our season's coldest temperature to date, we can expect to see more cold air tomorrow before our temperatures rebound into the mid 40s by Sunday. Tom Skilling has all the details on tonight's Before the Forecast. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in on Monday for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Thanks to Joe Vorrier for providing us this snowy scene from northwest Indiana's La Porte.
Joe reports 7.1 inches fell there. Thanks Joe!
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Photo courtesy of Joe Vorrier, La Porte, Indiana

Thanks to John Gehr and Chuck Heaver for these great shots of the week's second
lake-effect snow in the Indiana/Michigan lake snow belt. Accumulations Thursday into
Friday morning (Nov. 20-21) across the hardest-hit sections of La Porte, St. Joseph and
Starke counties in Indiana and Berrien County, Mich., ranged from 3 to as much as 13.5
inches. Lake snows occur next as cold air drops into the area early next week.

Chuck Heaver told us:

"Over here in Michigan, while Union Pier got a dusting, 3 miles inland Three Oaks
looked like 4-5"; 10 more miles inland; Buchanan looked like 12", maybe more. Take a
look at these shots ... pretty cool!”

Cool indeed! These are great shots! Thanks again to John and Chuck for their terrific
photos!
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune


South Bend Airport early Friday morning

Downtown Buchanan, Mich.

Photos courtesy of John Gehr and Chuck Heaver

There hasn't been a chill of Friday morning's intensity in the more than 8 months since
early March. Morning commuters are to be greeted by thermometer readings in the
teens with wind chills ranging from the single digits to the low teens.

The week's second blast of arctic air is to reach north Florida and the Gulf Coast Friday
night -- causing the area to be placed under hard freeze warnings.

The unseasonably cold air in Chicago on Friday -- including the predicted high of 30
-- was in northern Minnesota and southern Ontario on Thursday. Highs there were
limited to the teens. Only the sunshine-absorbing bare ground this air mass is moving
over as it arrives in the Chicago area will prevent highs from being that cool here. Even
so, Friday afternoon temperatures will remain at late-December and early-January
levels.

Lake snows wind down in the Indiana/ Michigan snowbelt. Up to 6 new inches was
reported in sections of western Michigan on Thursday.

BY SATURDAY, MORE SUB-40-DEGREE HIGHS THAN ANY NOVEMBER IN 11
YEARS
Ten November days will have failed to reach 40-degrees by Saturday's close.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
In "The Day After Tomorrow," temperatures dropped so much and so fast that buildings
froze. How cold must it be for that to happen?
-Florian Stefan

Dear Florian,
The situation depicted in the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow," in which temperatures
plunged so suddenly that skyscrapers in New York City froze literally within a few
seconds, is a fantasy situation that could not happen in the real world. It was, after all,
a science-fiction movie. Even a reading of 129 degrees below zero, the world's lowest
temperature (recorded at Vostok, Antarctica, on July 21, 1983) would be far from
sufficient to cause massive structures like skyscrapers to freeze that quickly.

In the movie situation, bitterly cold air aloft suddenly descended to the surface. In
reality, sinking air compresses and warms at a rate of 5.4 degrees per 1,000
feet of descent.

Meteorologist Steve Brown of Green Bay’s NBC26 forwards us these incredible shots of lake snowfall which buried sections of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula Thursday and was still falling heavily—particularly over the eastern U.P.-----late Thursday evening. The lake-effect snowstorm was the second to hit that region this week. Up to two feet fell in the first snow Tuesday. Thanks Steve!

-Tom Skilling

Photos courtesy of Elizabeth Yelland and Steve Brown

Thanks for joining us for this Thursday edition of Before the Forecast! Lake effect snow looks to plague portions of northwestern Indiana once again, also the predictions are in for the long term forecast for this winter. Tom Skilling breaks it all down on tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to Valpraiso's very own Aaron Brackett, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

An air mass likely to produce the fall's chilliest temperatures to date tightens its grip
on the Chicago area and activates the lake-snow machine a second time this week in
sections of Indiana and Michigan. Waves of snowfall from Porter, La Porte and St.
Joseph Counties in Indiana north into western Michigan could sweep parts of the
affected area for 24 to 36 hours, producing accumulations ranging from several inches
to as much as 8 to 14 inches. Unlike Tuesday's 10-inch lake snow centered in the
Valparaiso, Ind., area, the heaviest snowfall Thursday and Friday appears to be targeting
La Porte and St. Joseph Counties in Indiana and Berrien, Cass and Van Buren Counties in
Michigan.

Temperatures Thursday hover in the low 30s and may even slip a few degrees by
nightfall. But Friday's upper 20s will be the chilliest and coldest readings here since
early March -- more than 8 months ago.

CHILL GRIPS BOTH ENDS OF NORTH AMERICA

Record lows occurred from Tennessee to Florida Wednesday morning even as bitter air
sent Fairbanks, Alaska, below minus 20 degrees the first time this season.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
Is it just my imagination or have we had our heaviest snows the last few winters during
December?
Ed Berling Lockport

Dear Ed,

Your perceptions may have been influenced by recent events. Last December was quite
snowy totaling 17.6 inches at O'Hare International Airport and 21.1 inches at Midway
Airport. While the month featured no huge snowstorms, frequent small snows quickly
added up making December 2007 the snowiest here since 2000, when 30.9 inches fell
at O'Hare and 41.3 inches at Midway. Other that those two years, December snowfall
totals since 1998 are far from spectacular. Six years had less than 6 inches and the only
other years with remotely robust totals were 2002 with 8.0 inches and 2005 with 10.4
inches. The city's normal December snowfall is 8.7 inches at O'Hare and 10.4 inches at
Midway, about 25 percent of our annual snowfall.

Get ready for fall's coldest temperature yet. This coming Friday, Chicago could struggle to hit 30 degrees. Could Indiana be in store for some more lake effect snow? Tom Skilling has all the details on Tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Philip Powell, Professor of Communication at Valparaiso University, sends us these
shots taken on campus Tuesday in the wake of Valparaiso's biggest November snow in
4 years! Lake effect snows there accumulated 10 inches. Thanks Professor Powell for
sharing these great shots!

Tom Skilling

Photos courtesy of Philip Powell, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, Indiana

A new blast of arctic air is on the way -- a cold spell expected to reactivate the lake-
snow machine in parts of Indiana and Michigan on Thursday into Friday while sending
flurries fluttering in Chicago at times. But the new chill won't hit right away. Wednesday's
gusty southwest winds will help boost temperatures -- even if modestly -- sending
thermometer readings 11 degrees above Tuesday's levels.

The sprawling cold air mass set to dive south out of Canada is to send the week's
second wave of sub-freezing temperatures to the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida
peninsula by the weekend. The first wave of cold air there prompted hard freeze
warnings across north Florida overnight where lows in the 20s were predicted. Wind
chill advisories extended south to Orlando and Daytona Beach.

Record warmth continued Tuesday in the Plains and West. Chinook winds, which
compress and warm as they plunge out of the mountains, sent the temperature urging
in Rapid City, S.D. surging from a 22-degree low early Tuesday to a record breaking
79-degree high.

Other records out West included Phoenix and Los Angeles at 88 degrees.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
Why do trees grow buds in the winter when it is so cold?
Garrett Ricca (age 7), Naperville, Ill.

Dear Garrett,
Woody plants (like trees) that live for many years have the ability to survive through all
the different kinds of weather that occur during the course of the year -- warm
temperatures and thundershowers in summer and freezing cold weather and
snowstorms in winter. Trees cycle through an active growth phase in the warm part of
the year and a resting, or dormant, phase in the cold part.
They produce leaves and seeds in the spring and summer when days are long and
temperatures are warm, but as days grow shorter in the fall, they lose their leaves and
grow small "resting buds" that stay on the branches through the winter. That's what you
saw. Trees remain dormant in the winter but come out of their dormancy when warmer
temperatures return in the spring, and the cycle repeats.

Ashley Berg, a meteorology student at Valparaiso University, snapped
these "before and after" shots depicting the transformation of the
campus there to a winter wonderland thanks to that area's heaviest
November snow in the 4 years since 5.3" fell on November 25, 2004.
THANKS Ashley!! Great shots!

Tom Skilling

BEFORE

AFTER

Photos courtesy of Ashley Berg, Valparaiso University

Thanks for joining us for this Tuesday's edition of Before the Forecast! Wondering why Valparaiso, Indiana received 10 inches of snow last night while Chicago saw only a few flurries? Tom Skilling has all the details on Tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Ellen Lytle, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Hard working WGN weather intern Aaron Brackett captures Tuesday morning’s winter
wonderland on the Valparaiso University campus in the wake of overnight lake-effect
snows. Observations in to the National Weather Service indicate the area around
Valparaiso was hit by the heaviest snowfall—in marked contrast to Monday when the
lake snow belt of western Lower Michigan was favored with local 8 and 9” totals. Aaron
snapped these photos around 8am Tuesday morning. Great shots, Aaron---THANKS
for sharing them with us!

Tom Skilling

Photos courtesy of Aaron Brackett, Valparaiso University

With less than two weeks left in November, the first of two cold blasts predicted to
sweep the Chicago area this week offered a preview Monday of early December. The
36-degree high recorded at O'Hare not only equaled the "normal" daytime maximum
that occurs here Dec. 11, it was also 10 degrees below normal and the city's chilliest
afternoon reading since 34 degrees on March 21.

The interaction between the cold air and still "warm" waters of southern Lake Michigan
(which average 46 degrees) was explosive, sending the lake-snow machine into
overdrive in sections of Michigan and Indiana. By nightfall, 9 inches had fallen near
Holland and 8 inches was down at Saugatuck -- both in Michigan -- and nearly 3
inches had fallen at South Bend, Ind. Traffic was reported moving slowly along a stretch
of Interstate Highway 94 from Burns Harbor to Michigan City due to ice and drifting
snow.

Snow showers in the Chicago area Monday were more sporadic and lighter -- but they
rendered road surfaces icy and treacherous.

UP TO 8 INCHES IN SNOWBELT LATE MONDAY; 10-14 INCHES TO STACK UP IN HARDEST HIT AREAS
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
What day of the year is Chicago's snowiest day?
Fran Kosey, Chicago

Dear Fran,

We can offer two answers to your question.

For starters, consider this: A total of 3,063.0 inches of snow was measured at Midway
Airport in the 79-year period from 1929 through 2007. That works out to an average of
38.8 inches per year. Measurable snow has occurred there as early in the snow season
as Oct 12 (0.3 inch in 2006) and as late as May 11 (0.2 inch in 1966). Jan. 13 stands as
Chicago's snowiest day, with a total accumulation of 54.6 inches in the 79 years of
Midway snow data. Jan. 26 ranks second with 51.5 inches.

The snowiest single day, midnight to midnight, in Chicago snow history is Jan. 2,
1999, when 17.6 inches buried the city. That day was part of an epic Jan. 1-3 storm
that delivered 20.6 inches.

Check out the lake effect snow clouds as viewed from the Michigan shoreline

Former WGN weather intern and died in the wool weather enthusiast Chuck Heaver sends us this video of Monday’s snow squalls out over Lake Michigan and approaching the shoreline as viewed from Union Pier on the Michigan side of the lake. Chuck’s dog Digger was clearly excited at the prospect of lake snow! Thanks Chuck this great view of the lake snow situation from the Michigan side of the lake and keep us posted!

Tom Skilling

Video courtesy of Chuck Heaver, Union Pier, Michigan

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Thanks for joining us for this Monday edition of Before the Forecast! Today was our coldest temperature in 8 months, while Lake effect snows are affecting western Michigan. Tom Skilling has all the details on tonight's Before the Forecast. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Thanks to our friend John Gehr for these pictures Monday (11/17) from the Michigan snow
belt which is being walloped by waves of heavy lake-effect snowfall.

Tom Skilling

Photos courtesy of John Gehr, Holland, Michigan

Light snow swept across the area Sunday evening, bringing Chicago its first measurable
snow of the season precisely on the date of its expected arrival. Through early evening,
areas reporting measurable snowfall included the official site at O'Hare International
Airport as well as Midway Airport, Mundelein, Downers Grove and Oak Brook.
Temperatures hovering just above 32 degrees allowed the light snow to whiten the
ground. The snow will be short-lived here, but areas to the east downwind of Lake
Michigan are gearing up for the season's first major lake-effect snow, which may bring
8 inches or more to parts of north-central Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan by
Tuesday.
The week ahead promises to be chilly with highs in the 30s most days. A brief warmup
should send the mercury into the 40s Wednesday before another slug of colder air
arrives, accompanied by second round of lake-effect snow.

RECORD HIGHS, LOW HUMIDITY MAKE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA A TINDERBOX
Downsloping Santa Ana winds gusting at more than 50 m.p.h. sent temperatures
soaring and humidities dropping in Southern California on Sunday as wildfires
continued to ravage parts of the area.
--By Steve Kahn, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Dear Tom,
This year we had our first snowflakes on Oct. 26. What are the earliest and
latest dates for the arrival of the season's first snow?
Greg Simmons
Dear Greg,
The long-term (since 1884) average date for the season's first snowflakes is
Oct. 31, but the date from one year to the next can vary considerably. The
city's earliest encounter with snow took place on Sept. 25 -- first in 1928
and again in 1942. The latest arrival of the first snow occurred nine years
ago in 1999. Following a snowless October and November, Chicago finally
logged the season's first snow on Dec. 5th when 0.1 inches was recorded, the
start of a lackluster season that produced only 30.3 inches of snow.

This week's weather will take a definite wintry turn as several shots of cold air descend
upon the Chicago area. The first surge arrived this weekend and will be reinforced on
Monday as highs struggle to reach the lower 30s as snow flurries swirl through the air.
The cold shot is expected to turn on the lake-effect snow machine and send frequent
snow squalls into the snowbelts of southwest Lower Michigan and northwest Indiana
where the ground could actually whiten. Accumulating snow is not expected in the
Chicago area but snow flurries should be rather commonplace this week.

A brief warm-up is expected Wednesday sending the temperatures into the 40s, but the
cold is expected to return late Wednes- day and linger into Saturday morning.

TWISTERS RAKE NORTH CAROLINA; SANTA ANA WINDS FAN L.A. FIRES

Severe thunderstorms slammed into North Carolina early Saturday spawning at least six
twisters that killed two people. In Southern California, Santa Ana winds gusted as high
as 76 m.p.h. in the Los Angeles area near San Fernando fanning wildfires. The strong
winds sent temperatures into the 90s, setting many records for the day.

Dear Tom,
Florida has apparently gone through this hurricane season affected only by Tropical
Storm Edouard. I’d like to move there. Is any part of the state less prone for hurricanes?
-Molly Nellis

Dear Molly,

The entire state is vulnerable. With three coastlines, Florida is a target for hurricanes
approaching from the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the Atlantic. Since 1850 more
than 110 hurricanes have made landfall there with the Panhandle and northwest most
vulnerable, followed in decreasing order by hits in the southeast, southwest and the
northeast. Because Florida is a long, narrow state, hurricanes can easily move across the
state with little decrease in intensity. In Florida’s nightmare 2005 season, Hurricane
Wilma produced more damage in southeast Florida than it did after its landfall in the
southwest part of the state.

It's going to feel rather wintry in the Chicago area the next few days as an early season
blast of cold air sweeps into the city Saturday on gusty northwest winds. Chicago highs
that reached the 50s both Thursday and Friday will be distant memories as readings are
not expected to break out of the 30s until next Wednesday at the earliest.
In addition to the chill, several periods of snow flurries are possible the next few days.
With the cold air sweeping south across Lake Michigan, the snow belts of Michigan and
northwest Indiana could be in for some heavy lake-effect snow as the heart of the cold
blast moves across the Midwest. After a brief moderation on Wednesday, another cold
shot will bring a repeat of the chill and flurries through the end of the week.

BOTH COASTS BASK IN RECORD WARMTH
Record warmth invaded Southern California Friday as strong Santa Ana winds sent
temperatures soaring. New records included 91 degrees at Burbank and Santa Maria,
and 94 degrees at Santa Ana.
Florida also basked in record warmth Friday with 86 degrees at Daytona Beach, 85
degrees at Vero Beach and 88 degrees at Orlando.
--By Steve Kahn, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Dear Tom,
You recently wrote about an 8.6-inch snowfall around Thanksgiving in 1975.
Was that Chicago's biggest November snowstorm?
Haley Wilson
Dear Haley,
It was not, actually coming in third behind a 12-inch storm on Nov. 25-26,
1895, and a 9.3-inch windy, slushy snowfall that blasted the city on Nov.
6-7, 1951. That snow, which began early in the morning of the 6th, became
very heavy by the evening rush hour. It brought traffic to a standstill and
caused many to abandon their vehicles. One-hour bus trips turned into
four-hour-travel marathons as howling east winds piled the wet snow into
huge drifts. The strong winds produced high waves on Lake Michigan that not
only flooded shoreline areas but also crashed onto outer Lake Shore Drive,
closing it to traffic.

Thanks for joining us for this Friday edition of Before the Forecast! After another mild day, temperatures will be crashing overnight tonight. Tomorrow Chicago will struggle to reach the 40 degree mark. Tom Skilling has all the details on tonight's Before the Forecast. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in Monday for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Friday's predicted 50s won't last long. A southbound blast of cold Canadian air is on
the move beneath powerhouse 150+ m.p.h. jet-stream-level winds. The chill's arrival
will become noticeable in Saturday's predawn, possibly encouraging some rain in the
area to mix with or change to wet snow away from Lake Michigan. But the cold air's
impact becomes most noticeable as howling north winds take hold and send
temperatures into a slow, steady decline beneath wintry gray skies. This is expected to
yield snow showers at times Saturday. Weekend temperatures are to be the coldest of
the fall season to date and the chilliest since last March.

The cold blast is just one of three predicted to arrive at regular intervals over the
coming week. The second one sweeps in Monday and a third is due Thursday.
Persistent warmth aloft which induces a northward buckle in the jet stream for the next
two weeks over North Atlantic appears likely to encourage northwest winds to flood
into the lower 48 states. Thus prolonged warming is not in sight.

U.S. NOVEMBER SNOW COVER IS NEARLY 5 TIMES THAT OF A YEAR AGO

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
Is there a word for that stuff that falls from the sky that is not snow or sleet, but looks
like tiny pieces of Styrofoam?
R. Mitchell

Dear R.,
It's called graupel, frozen (as opposed to liquid) precipitation in the form of roundish,
white grains of soft ice that resemble tapioca. They are easily crushed and often break
apart after they rebound from hard surfaces. Graupel is also commonly referred to as
"snow grains" or "soft hail." The latter designation is misleading because hail, typically
associated with thunderstorms, is an entirely different kind of frozen precipitation.
Snowflakes, as they descend through clouds, sometimes encounter supercooled water
droplets -- liquid water that has cooled, without freezing, to a temperature below 32
degrees. Supercooled droplets freeze onto snowflakes falling through them, coating the
flakes with rime ice; the result is graupel.

Thanks for joining us for this Thursday edition of Before the Forecast! Today was our warmest temperature in over a week for Chicago, but big changes are in store. Watch tonight's Before the Forecast for all the details. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Aaron Brackett, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

After shivering through the longest early season string of days in the 30s since 1991,
Thursday is likely to feel downright mild to many Chicagoans. A pair of 50+-degree
days is predicted Thursday and Friday -- the warmest readings here in a week. Gusty
southwest winds deliver the Pacific origin "warmth" Thursday. A late-day cold front
shifts winds westerly and ignites a period of rain Thursday night. But it's Friday night
when the real meteorological action begins. That's when a second cold front hits with
powerful northwest winds and changes Friday evening rain showers into a wet snow.
Forecast highs of 38 degrees Saturday and 37 on Sunday would make the coming
weekend the chilliest here in the eight months since March 8-9.

Rains Wednesday drenched Indiana and Downstate Illinois, where 1.71 inches fell at
Carmi and 1.34 inches at Mt. Carmel.

PAST 5 DAYS THE CLOUDIEST SPELL HERE IN MORE THAN 9 MONTHS

Not only has it been cold, the past five days have been cloudy. Veteran observer Frank
Wachowski reports that 4 of the past 5 days have been sunless. That period has been
Chicago's cloudiest since Feb. 2 -6.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
While camping in the "north woods" (300 miles north of Winnipeg, Canada), we saw the
aurora borealis. How high up do auroras form?
John Lutz

Dear John,
Dr. Fredrik Carl Stormer (1874-1957), a professor of mathematics at the Institute of
Theoretical Astrophysics in Blidern, Norway, pioneered the use of photography to study
auroras in the early 1900s. He and his research team simultaneously photographed
auroras from many different locations and, by means of triangulation and geometry,
calculated the height in the atmosphere at which they occur.

Stormer found that auroras occur in two separate "zones of activity," --a lower zone
about 50-200 miles above the Earth's surface and an upper zone 350-630 miles aloft.

Stormer also found that most auroras originate in the lower zone.

These amazing shots of the northern lights over Yellowknife in Canada’s Northwest
Territories come to us from Moriel Weiselberg of Deer Park, Long Island who received
them from her friend Carole Witkover. The region sits beneath the so-called auroral oval
and is treated to these spectacular auroral displays regularly. Carole has captured the
stunning displays with incredible clarity. Many thanks Moriel and Carole---and thanks
too to Charles Kallick who first called these images to our attention.

Tom Skilling

Photos courtesy of Moriel Weiselberg and Carole Witkover

Sunset as seen from five miles above the Earth

This gorgeous sunset was taken by Anson Mount, a frequent contributor to our blog . He snapped this photo at the 25,000 ft. level over northern Ohio while heading back to the Chicago area on Wednesday evening. Thanks for this great shot Anson!

Bill Snyder, WGN-TV weather producer

Photo by Anson Mount

Spectacular Arizona sunset

In a place known for its gorgeous sunsets, this one is no exception. Thanks to Stephen Michaelis, a former Chicagoan, for this beautiful shot taken near his home in Peoria, Arizona.

Thanks much Stephen!

Bill Snyder, WGN-TV Weather Producer


Photo by Stephen Michaelis

Thanks for joining us for this Wednesday edition of Before the Forecast! After a dreary day with on and off rain showers, we can expect to see a slight warm-up for the next couple of days before temperatures go crashing down again this weekend. Tom Skilling has all the details on Tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Wintry weather turns northern Wisconsin snowy and a bit slippery

Check out these photos which have just arrived (Wednesday morning 11/12/2008) from our friend Dan Hanson in Winter, Wisconsin---located about 40 miles southeast of Hayward. THANKS Dan—and stay warm!!

Tom Skilling WGN Weather Center

All photos by Dan Hanson

City temperatures failed to reach 40 degrees for a fourth consecutive day Tuesday,
topping out at 38 degrees at O'Hare Airport and 39 at Midway. It's the first time so early
in a new cold season that four days have failed to break out of the 30s, and only the
fourth time such a lengthy cool spell has occurred this early in the past 80 years.
Weather records at Midway Airport dating back to 1928 indicate the average date of
Chicago's first four-day string of sub-40-degree days has been Nov. 28. That places
this recent cold spell nearly three weeks early.

But the chill is breaking. The moisture saturated air prevents temperatures from
dropping overnight and will buoy readings Wednesday as well.

CHILL EASING -- BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY

Afternoon highs beneath Wednesday's warmth-extinguishing cloud cover won't be a
bargain -- but readings will be 10 degrees higher than Tuesday. It's even better
Thursday when gusty south/southwest winds and some emerging sun push temps
above 50 degrees. The mild air lingers into Friday with low 50s a good bet. But a storm
expected to spin up just north of Chicago Friday night circulates colder air into the area
and changes rain to snow.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Hello, Tom,
I can remember a very, very cold Thursday morning in early November of 1991. Did the
temperature dip below zero that morning, because my car wouldn't start and many
schools were closed?
Jerrold Petrizzo, Lemont, Ill.

Dear Jerrold,

Thursday, Nov. 7, 1991, was indeed a cold day across northeast Illinois, but
temperatures did not dip below zero. Chicago's temperatures that day ranged from an
afternoon high of 27 degrees to an overnight low of 13, the latter being a record low for
the date.

The entire period from Nov. 2-9 was cold throughout, with daily lows ranging
from 11 to 19 degrees and highs from 24 to 38 degrees. (Normal lows then are in the
middle 30s, highs in the low 50s.) Snow flurries and very light snow occurred
intermittently on five of the eight days, but total snow accumulation for the
eight-day period was less than one-half inch.

Thanks for joining us for this Tuesday edition of Before the Forecast! Cooler weather is definitely on its way as the atmosphere reloads for another cool blast. Tom Skilling has all the details on Tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Ellen Lytle, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Pilot Anson Mount sends us this photo looking north-northeast from his cockpit over
Pennsylvania Tuesday morning. The sharp demarcation in the altocumulus cloud deck
caught his eye--and is fascinating. The cut-off in the clouds is so sharp, it
almost looks as if some kind of straight-edge tool was placed along these clouds.

Thanks for sharing this with us Anson!

Tom Skilling


Photo courtesy of Anson Mount, Algonquin, Illinois

Not since 1995 have three consecutive days failed to produce a 40-degree high at
Midway Airport this early in the season. Highs at the Southwest Side site struggled
Saturday, Sunday and Monday to reach 39, 38 and 39 degrees at a time of the year when
low 50s are considered the norm. Monday no doubt had many Chicagoans reflecting on
the near-record 73-degree high only a week earlier.

Autumn 2008 -- well over two-thirds complete -- has produced temperatures near the
long-term average, but 2.6-degrees cooler than the same period a year ago.

PANHANDLE LOW BEHIND CHILLY RAINS DUE HERE LATE TUESDAY

Many Chicagoans' hearts skip a beat as Panhandle low-pressure systems approach.
Such a disturbance is behind the thickening cloud deck expected to produce afternoon
sprinkles and then steadier rain toward nightfall and well into Tuesday night. Six states
-- from Colorado to Iowa -- were under winter weather advisories for snow late
Monday. Imperial, Neb., had reported 7 inches of snow by nightfall.

Chicago escapes the frozen precipitation with this system though it is possible a few
ice pellets (sleet) may occur this afternoon.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
We had a major Thanksgiving Eve snowfall a few years ago. My dad said he remembered
another Thanksgiving Eve snowstorm back in the 1970s. Which storm was bigger?
Sally Watson

Dear Sally,

The storm that your father recalls was a huge one totaling 8.6 inches on Nov. 26-27,
1975. Snow fell furiously through Wednesday afternoon and evening and when it finally
ended on Thanksgiving morning a total of 8.6 inches had fallen at Midway Airport. That
storm was twice as big as the preholiday snowstorm a few years ago on Nov. 24, 2004
in which 4.3 inches fell. Both storms severely impacted air travel and traffic crawled on
snow-covered highways.

Significant snow around Thanksgiving is not all that common in Chicago. Using the
"White Christmas" standard of 1 inch of snow on the ground on the holiday, the city has
logged only 11 "White Thanksgivings" dating back to 1884.

Thanks for joining us for this Monday edition of Before the Forecast! After reaching just 39 degrees for today, we can expect to see a very small increase in temperatures, as tomorrow, Chicago could reach the mid 40s. A storm system in the Midwest has many areas under a winter weather advisory. Tom Skilling has all the details on tonight's Before the Forecast. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Despite welcome rains over sections of the Southeast, extreme drought conditions grip
continue to grip the western Carolinas, northern Georgia, eastern Tennesssee and
southeast Kentucky. These photos of the eye catching LOW water levels on Lake
Hartwell, which sits on the the South Carolina border with Georgia, come to us from

Aaron Bracket, whose aunt took these picture. As Aaron explains, "It is a pretty
large lake and is running way below normal." Aaron’s Aunt, who lives on Lake
Hartwell, writes, "Our lake is disappearing. The dock is just about totally on the
ground. The bridge picture is in the water in front of the stadium by the house—we’ve
boated over it many times—YIKES!!"

It is--and has been--a worrisome situation for residents of the region and we thank
Aaron for sharing these photos. They clearly illustrate how critical the situation there is.
THANKS Aaron and let’s hope this cold season brings the drought stricken area
additional precipitation!

Tom Skilling

Photos courtesy of Aaron Brackett, Valparaiso University

As west winds diminish, clouds will gradually thin out this morning over northeast
Illinois. The resulting sunshine may be the last Chicagoans experience for some time. The
southern tip of cool Canadian high pressure will linger the next few days -- but
cloudiness and precipitation (mainly light rain) will spread over the area from the south as
low pressure tracks east along the Ohio River Valley. On Friday, a large low pressure
system over the Great Lakes will pull arctic air into the Midwest. Strong winds, freezing
temperatures and frequent snow showers are expected in Chicago later Friday and all day
Saturday.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTH MICHIGAN
With northwest winds whipping across Lake Superior, Winter Storm Advisories for heavy
snow were issued for Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan last night and this
morning. In Upper Michigan, Shingleton had 9 inches on the ground by 6 p.m. Sunday.
One to two inches were expected in southwestern Lower Michigan.
--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Dear Tom,
Are we expecting a snowy or a dry winter this time around? Last winter was
not fun.
Geno Santiago
Dear Geno,
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center recently released
its outlook for the December through February period. For the Chicago area,
averaged through those three months, the outlook anticipates a 50 percent
chance of above-normal temperatures, a 33 percent chance of near-normal
temperatures and a 17 percent chance of below-normal temperatures. Thus, the
outlook favors an increased chance of above-normal temperatures.
The outlook also indicates equal chances of above-normal and below-normal
precipitation. That means no clear climatic signal exists pointing to one
scenario more than another. Keep in mind "precipitation" does not equal
"snow." It refers to the liquid equivalent of rain and snow combined.

For the next seven days a nearly stationary strong west-to-east jet stream will be
positioned from the central plains to the East Coast. As a result, the southern edge of a
cold Canadian-source air mass will sit over the Midwest. The coldest air of the season
will rest over northeast Illinois Sunday, reinforced by strong west-to- northwest winds.
More sun Monday will push readings into the lower 40s, then clouds associated with
low pressure to the south will spread into northern Illinois and probably will persist the
remainder of the week. As low pressure systems track closer to Chicago, the chance of
rain increases significantly by midweek. By week's end a major storm is forecast to
develop that will carry a cold punch that could send temperatures in a downward spiral
Saturday and bring an extensive band of snow showers from Minnesota to Kentucky
and beyond.

PALOMA WEAKENS OVER CUBA

Category 4 Hurricane Paloma hit the southern shores of Cuba early Saturday evening.
The storm is expected to move off Cuba's northern shore into the Atlantic Sunday as a
considerably weakened tropical storm. Forecasters indicate Paloma will continue to
weaken as it drifts northeast.

--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Dear Tom,
The problem of global warming is on everyone's mind these days, but aside from that,
what other environmental issues should we be concerned about?
-Bill Wright

Dear Bill,

Global climate change (not just global warming) heads the list of environmental
issues but other environmental challenges abound. Many of them concern fresh water,
which is increasingly in short supply as human population expands and demand
increases. Pollution of existing supplies is a growing problem worldwide. Another
environmental concern: Poor agricultural practices that lead to soil erosion and
degradation of soil quality which reduces crop yields. Other concerns: Deforestation,
desertification, air pollution and species extinction due to habitat loss and climate
change. And, rising sea levels increasingly threaten densely populated coastal areas.

Wintry weather puts in an appearance Saturday. Chicagoans shiver in the area's coldest
weekend temperatures in nearly eight months (since March) as blustery winds limit
wind chills to the 20s.
Snow flurries will also fly from time to time Saturday -- hardly an unusual occurrence
this time of year. Looking back at 125 years of Chicago snow observations, 110 years
have recorded flurries by Nov. 15. That puts the climatological odds of flurries at 89
percent. Measurable snow is another matter: Only 55 of the past 125 years -- 44
percent of them -- have hosted "sticking" snow here.
Plains residents continue recovering from the mammoth snowfall earlier this week that
left up to 4 feet of snow whipped by 60-70 m.p.h. winds in the Black Hills.

PALOMA WALLOPS CAYMANS; HEADS FOR CUBA AS POWERHOUSE CATEGORY 3
Howling winds from powerhouse, late-season Hurricane Paloma whipped the Cayman
Islands on Friday. Owen Roberts Airport in Grand Cayman reported sustained winds of 44 m.p.h. with gusts that topped 60 m.p.h. Paloma was expected to make landfall in Cuba early Sunday and weaken rapidly.
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
I used to hear about cloud seeding to create rain, but I don't hear much
about it anymore. What is cloud seeding, and why has it faded away?
Donna Sweetser
Dear Donna,
Cloud seeding is controversial. Thorny legal issues often arise with the
process, and many states have banned it.
Cloud seeding involves adding certain chemicals to clouds, usually to
stimulate cloud development and enhance rainfall production, but there can
be other uses (such as hail suppression) as well.
Cloud seeding does not "create" rain. Rather, it encourages a cloud on the
verge of producing rain to produce more rain than it otherwise might. Many
scientists are skeptical of the results, and meteorologists point out that
clouds favorable for seeding often don't exist when drought conditions
prevail, whereas irrigation systems, though costly, guarantee the desired
benefits.

Thanks for joining us for this Friday edition of Before the Forecast! Chicago can expect to see its coldest temperatures in 8 months this weekend! Snow flurries are also possible later tonight. Watch tonight's Before the Forecast with Tom Skilling for all of the details. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

The fall colors at Morton Arboretum in Lisle are always a special treat -- and never
more so than this year. Enjoy these beautiful shots from the Arboretum's Nicholle
Heffern. Many thanks for sharing these with us, Nicoholle, and
please say hello to everyone at the Arboretum for us!!
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

A tea crabapple near Firefly Pond

A fullmoon maple in the Japan Collection

A photo of assorted trees taken in the East Woods

A photo taken near the hedge garden, facing towards the research and administration building

A sweet-gum tree taken around Meadow Lake

Photos courtesy of Nicholle Heffern, Morton Arboretum in Lisle, Illinois

The beautiful fall colors here in the city of Chicago are captured in these shots from our
friend Thomas Nava. Thanks Thomas!
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Photos courtesy of Thomas Nava

A dose of wintry weather expected to slash weekend temperatures 20+ degrees below
those observed just a week ago is Chicago-bound. Cold winds circulating around the
powerful autumn storm that energized south winds and propelled temperatures to
unseasonably warm levels much of the week will introduce snow to the local weather
scene beginning Friday night. It's only the third time this season snowflakes have been
in the air here.

The mammoth low pressure behind the jarring weather change here hammered the
northern Plains on Thursday with blinding snow riding 60 to 70 m.p.h. winds. An area
just miles from Deadwood in western South Dakota's Black Hills reported 45.7 inches
of snow while 13 inches buried nearby Rapid City with drifts 8 to 10 feet high.

PALOMA ROARING ACROSS CARIBBEAN TOWARD CUBA; LIKELY TO BECOME 100+ M.P.H.
HURRICANE

The Caribbean's 84-degree waters spawned the 2008 season's 6th named tropical
storm. As Paloma headed for the Cayman Islands, Cuba and eastern Baha- mas, the
system intensified to hurricane strength late Thursday. It threatens to become a 100+
m.p.h. hurricane.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
Has Chicago ever recorded a low temperature of 70 degrees of higher in
October?
Brandon D. Lade

Dear Brandon,
October lows in the 70s are quite rare in Chicago, having occurred on only six
occasions since records began in 1871. Not surprisingly, all but one of these took
place in the month's opening week. The only balmy night Chicago ever logged beyond
the first week occurred on Oct. 21, 1979. After a 78 degree high on Oct. 20, brisk south
winds kept the following morning's low from dropping below 70. Later that day the
mercury soared to a summer-like 84 and by midnight remained at a mild 73. Then a
cold frontal passage brought showers and falling temperatures with readings at a more
seasonable low of 45 by day's end on Oct. 22. Chicago's last October low in the 70s
was 71 on Oct. 4, 2005.

Thanks for joining us for this Thursday edition of Before the Forecast! Temperatures plummet across Northern Illinois tonight under the influence of a vigorous cold front. Also, big snows are happening across portions of the upper Midwest. Watch tonight's Before the Forecast for all of the details. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Aaron Brackett, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Anson Mount captures Thursday evening's sunset (11/6) on Route 176 near Mundelein.
The "dry wedge" of a huge autumn storm draped across the nation's Heartland Thursday
evening--- the cloud-free indentation you see on satellite images of huge storms
which gives these systems their characteristic "comma" shape appearance and a feature
which occurs in a region of strong atmospheric subsidence (sinking air) beneath to
right-front quadrant of the strongest band of jet stream winds---was moving into the
area as Anson snapped this photo bringing the afternoon's occasionally heavy showers
to an end and producing a measure of clearing which is likely to persist into Friday
morning. Thanks for the beautiful shot, Anson!!

Tom Skilling

Photo courtesy of Anson Mount, Algonquin

So many of you who read our blog are wonderful about sending us photos of our
ever-changing weather---including the ominous looking skies which preceded and
accompanied today’s gusty cold frontal showers and thunderstorms. Check them
out--and MANY THANKS to those who took the time to share their photos with us.

Tom Skilling

Photos courtesy of Gregory Caffero, St. Charles

Photos courtesy of Tyler Christiansen, Elgin

Here's something worth a look -- it's a panoramic view of the Bolivar Peninsula after the devastation of Hurricane Ike. You can pull the image left, right, up, and down to check out the area from every angle!

Thanks to Mark LaBoyteaux of Hawkeye Media in Dallas/Fort Worth for this link.

Fast-moving late-season thunderstorms threaten to sweep sections of the Chicago
area Thursday afternoon. High winds are common when storms move quickly and the
degree of heating and precise timing of their arrival here will be critical to whether any
severe weather watches become necessary. Thursday's storm threat is an extension of
an uncommonly vigorous late-season thunderstorm outbreak Wednesday in the
southern Plains and western Midwest, the region hit with large hail. Storm spotters in
Piedmont, Okla. reported hail the size of tennis balls (2.5 inches in diameter) -- one of
63 reports of hail filed with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center by late in the day. The
squall line responsible included some radar-scanned thunderstorm tops up to 44,000
feet.

RESIDENTS IN THE DAKOTAS TOLD TO STAY HOME; BLIZZARDS SLASH
VISIBILITIES TO ZERO!

The mammoth autumn storm responsible for the Plains thunderstorms were producing
blizzard conditions from Wyoming through the Dakotas. Gusts to 66 m.p.h. there were
behind whiteout conditions, expected to continue Thursday.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
I have counted 21 jet contrails in the sky at one time. Why do some contrails dissipate
quickly and others linger and grow?
Marty Kelly, Janesville, Wisc.

Dear Marty,

Contrails, those white streaks of ice-crystal clouds trailing behind high-flying jet
aircraft, form when water vapor produced by the burning of jet fuel condenses into
visible cloud particles. Once formed, the lifespan of contrails depends on the amount
of moisture in the air.

In dry air, contrails will rapidly evaporate and disappear. In moist air, contrails linger for
hours, often growing and expanding from additional condensation.

Contrails in parallel lines result from aircraft moving through flight corridors --
"roadways" in the sky established by air traffic control centers. Aircraft
passing near waypoints -- "intersections" in the sky -- produce criss-crossing
contrails.

Thanks for joining us for this Wednesday edition of Before the Forecast! Today marks our 3rd day in a row of 70-degree plus weather. This weekend, however, looks to be much cooler with a slight possiblity of snow flurries. Tom Skilling has all the details on Tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to our weather interns Eric Szos and Andrei Evbuoma, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Mike Toohill, who's crop reports are must-reads here, was fishing around sunset Tuesday
in Bloomington's Tipton Park when he spotted and photographed the SUN DOG you're
seeing here. It's the bright, multicolored patch on a patch which appears over a portion of
a cirrus clouds. Many thanks for sharing this with us Jeff! Great shot!

Tom Skilling

Photo courtesy of Mike Toohill; Bloomington, Illinois

A rare third consecutive November day of 70-degree temperatures is predicted
Wednesday. With a sharp change to colder weather predicted to begin Thursday night
and Friday, today's 71-degree high may well be 2008's final thermal excursion above
70 degrees, and Tuesday marked only the third time since 1872 that temperatures on
Election Day reached or exceeded 70 degrees. The vertical alignment of southerly winds
through a deep layer of the atmosphere -- from the jet stream down to ground level --
sets the stage for increasingly powerful winds to sweep the Chicago area. A powerful
autumn storm coming together in the Plains, responsible for a suite of winter weather
advisories across sections of 16 states, aids the developing high-wind regime here --
a windy setup that appears muscular enough to override the typical post-sunset
downturn in wind velocities Wednesday night. South exposure windows are likely to
rattle in 30+ m.p.h. gusts through the night into Thursday morning.

TEMP PLUNGES EXCEEDING40 DEGREES ARE NOT UNCOMMON AFTER
MULTI-DAY NOVEMBER 70-DEGREE SPELLS

A 43 degree temp drop is expected from Wednesday's high to Sunday night's low.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
My parents who both grew up on Iowa farms always talk about the 1940 Armistice Day
storm. How did that storm impact Chicago?

Ann Montgomery LaGrange Park, Ill.

Dear Ann,
The Nov. 11, 1940 Armistice Day storm was one of the worst to ever hit the
Midwest. Ahead of the storm the region was basking in 50-60 degree warmth in the
strong southerly flow preceding the storm. As the storm passed, cold air slammed into
the region on howling 50-70 m.p.h. winds, turning rain to snow as temperatures
plunged to single-digits causing hunters to freeze to death. Blizzard conditions
developed across Iowa and Minnesota where snow drifted as high as 15 feet. In
Chicago, the mercury reached a balmy 63 degrees at 11 a.m. then fell to 20 by midnight
and to 16 by the following morning. Winds here peaked at 65 m.p.h. damaging
buildings, trees, power lines, knocking down signs and blowing out hundreds of
windows.

Thanks for joining us for this Tuesday's edition of Before the Forecast! Today marks one of three election days in Chicago since 1872 to have a 70 degree or higher temperature! But a new cool wet weather trend is about to begin. Tom Skilling has all the details on Tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Ellen Lytle, for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

A Chicago general Election Day hasn't been as warm as the 72-degree high predicted
Tuesday in 44 years -- since a 75-degree high was recorded here Nov. 3, 1964. That's
the year Barry Goldwater faced Lyndon Johnson for the presidency. Weather records
reveal that warm weather and Election Days don't often go together in Chicago. Of 39
Election Days since 1872, only two have posted 70-degree temps. Not only will area
voters enjoy September-level warmth, Tuesday afternoon's 72-degree high is within
striking distance of the day's 74-degree record set 30 years ago and is nearly 20
degrees above normal. The area is in the midst of a three-day string of 70s, something
that's happened only six times since the first weather observations were taken at
Midway Airport in 1928. Monday's 73-degree highs at O'Hare and Midway were the
city's warmest in a November in 8 years. Only 26 of the 80 Novembers on the books at
Midway since 1928 have managed a temp 73 degrees or higher.

WINTRY WEATHER OUT WEST HINTS AT CHILL TO COME HERE

Accumulating snow at higher elevations of 8 states out West is the first stage of a pat-
tern shift that will cool Chicago late week.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Dear Tom,
As a skier, I am always concerned about "avalanche weather" in the mountains out west.
What weather is most conducive to avalanches?

John Barsema

Dear John,

Jeff Renner, author of Northwest Mountain Weather, comments, "Just as
fresh snow offers wonderful conditions in which to play, it also increases the avalanche
hazard."

To assess that hazard, Renner says you should know the weather conditions that
preceded your ski outing. Avalanches generally occur during or within 24 hours of a
major snowstorm. The risk is greater when a storm starts at cold temperatures and then
it warms. This puts wetter, heavier snow on top of less-dense snow, an unstable
situation. A rule of thumb: Beware when freezing levels are forecast to rise. Winds
above 15 m.p.h. also increase the risk, allowing the snow to pack into a slab that
can let go if disturbed.

The Chicago area is to experience the warmest Election Day weather here since the
November 3, 1964 election features Barry Goldwater and LBJ. It was 79-degrees that
day!

Election Day here in Chicago is to be nothing short of remarkable! At a time of the year
when temperatures can gyrate wildly and clouds and precipitation are all too frequent,
our forecast remains unchanged and predicts near record warmth with gusty south to
southwest winds and temperatures more typical of mid September than early November.
Our forecast of the mildest Chicago Election Day weather in the 44 years remains
unchanged. Chicago area voters are to experience the warmest Election Day temperature
here since November 3, 1964----44 years ago----when tempertures reached
75-degrees. And not a drop of rain will be with hundreds of miles of the Chicago area.

TUESDAY NOV. 4 ELECTION DAY FORECAST---Issued Monday Nov. 3

Sunny and fairly windy with near record warmth. Afternoon highs nearly 20-degrees
ABOVE normal and more typical of mid-September than of early November. Completely
rain-free! South to southwest winds 10 to 22 m.p.h. with some higher gusts. (Normal
Nov. 4 high: 53-degrees).

High 72.

OBAMA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING RALLY—Scheduled to run from 8
p.m. Tuesday evening to 1 a.m. Wednesday morning

Mainly clear, breezy and unusually mild. Only wisps of high, thin clouds. Rally
temperatures will remain higher than the "NORMAL HIGHS" typically observed this time
of year. Readings in Grant Park will be near 64-degrees as the rally begins around 8
p.m. and will only settle to 57-degrees by the rally's conclusion estimated to be around
1 a.m. Steady south to southwest winds 10 to 20 m.p.h.

Tom Skilling
WGN/Chicago Tribune Chief Meteorologist

Thanks for joining us for this Monday edition of Before the Forecast! Chicago hit 73 degrees today, and we can expect to see at least 70 degrees the next two days before temperatures plunge this coming weekend. Tom Skilling has all the details on Tonight's BTF. A big thank you goes out to our weather intern Eric Szos for helping us out with tonight's video.

For complete weather information, tune in to WGN News at 9pm and wgntv.com for Tom Skilling's Full and 7-day forecasts.

Tune in tomorrow for another edition of Before the Forecast, and as always continue
to watch WGN for more coverage: Morning, Noon & Nine.

Nick Liveris shares these shots of our spectacular Chicago area fall colors taken this
past Saturday (Nov. 1) in the Morton Arboretum and in north suburban Deerfield
along Deerfield Road.

Thanks Nick!!

Tom Skilling

Photos courtesy of Nick Liveris, Chicago Illinois

It's not everyday we get a chance to see a sunrise from the cockpit of a
Boeing-777--let alone sunrises over the North Pole, just west of Nome, Alaska and the
Amazon jungle. But, we can thank Jeff Starr, who pilots a Boeing-777 out of O'Hare, for
giving us a chance to do so through these images he has forwarded to us! Jeff, you
made our day!

THANKS very much!

Tom Skilling

Photo courtesy: Jeff Starr

With the warm front well to the north and low pressure in the Plains, southerly winds
will strengthen and continually pump mild air into northern Illinois today, Tuesday and
Wednesday. Chicago should experience highs of 70 degrees or higher on those three
days. Record highs of 75 degrees today and 74 degrees Tuesday are not out of reach;
and if they're not recorded at the official O'Hare Airport site, they will most likely be
observed elsewhere in Chicagoland. It has been 18 years (1990) since the last time
Chicago experienced three straight days of 70s in November.
As the low pressure system approaches the Mississippi River, clouds will begin to
overspread Illinois Wednesday.

AIR MASS CHANGE THURSDAY
Thunderstorms are expected Thursday with the passage of a cold front. Severe storms
may be associated with this front: first Wednesday in the central Plains, and then
primarily just to the west and south of Chicago on Thursday. Very cold air from
northern Canada will work its way south into Minnesota Friday. Once the storm center
finally moves northeast of Lake Superior, the southern tip of arctic air will flow into
northern Illinois next weekend.
--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Dear Tom,
I saw many earthworms this past summer, what with all the rain. Any
explanation?
William Fie
Dear William,
The bodies and organs of earthworms are obviously very different from ours,
but their unique bodies enable them to live their underground lifestyle
efficiently.
A spokesman from the University of California (Berkeley) Lawrence Hall of
Science explains, "Earthworms require oxygen just as we do, but they have no
lungs. Instead, blood pumped by a series of five simple hearts flows close
to the worm's surface (and) absorbs oxygen and releases carbon dioxide
directly through the moist skin.
"For this reason earthworms can live for some time in water if the oxygen
supply is adequate. They don't drown per se, but may suffocate if the oxygen
content is low. This is why worms leave the soil and crawl on the sidewalk
during a heavy rain -- they are seeking oxygen."

There has been very little change in our Election Day weather forecast for
Chicago. The area continues in line for the mildest Election Day weather
which has occurred in Chicago in the 44 years since Election Day (Nov. 3)
1964 when the city's official high was 75 degrees.

TUESDAY NOV. 4 ELECTION DAY FORECAST
Issued Sunday, Nov. 2
Mainly sunny, breezy and unseasonably warm. High temperatures 18 degrees
above normal! Completely rain-free!

8 a.m. - Sunny skies, 55 degrees, south winds 6-10 m.p.h.
1 p.m. - Mostly sunny skies, breezy and mild, 71 degrees, south-southwest
winds 10-22 m.p.h.
5 p.m. - Clear skies, 66 degrees, south winds 12-18 m.p.h.

OBAMA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING RALLY
Scheduled to run from 8 p.m. Tuesday evening to 1 a.m. Wednesday morning
Scattered high clouds, southerly breeze 8-15 m.p.h. and unusually mild.
Rain-free! Temperatures at the start of the rally near 63 degrees fall to 57 degrees
by the rally's end.
--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

The area continues in line for the mildest Election Day weather which has occurred in Chicago in the 44 years since Election Day (Nov. 3) 1964 when the city’s official high was 75-degrees.

Tuesday, Nov. 4 forecast (Issued Nov. 1)

Mainly sunny, breezy and unseasonably warm. High temperatures 18-degrees above
normal! Completely rain-free!

8A.M. Sunny skies 55 degrees south winds 12-15 mph
1P.M. Mostly Sunny skies, windy and mild 69 degrees south
winds 15 to 25 m.p.h. with higher gusts Mid-afternoon Mostly Sunny skies Highest
temperature 72 degrees South winds 15 to 25 with possible gusts to 30 m.p.h.
6 P.M. Clear skies 66 degrees south winds 12 to 18 m.p.h.

OBAMA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING RALLY
Scheduled to run from 8 p.m. Tuesday evening to 1 a.m. Wednesday morning
Scattered high clouds, breezy and unusually mild. Rain-free!
Temperatures at the start of the rally near 64-degrees falling to 59-degrees by the
rally’s end. South winds 11-17 m.p.h.

Signaling the start of an unseasonable warming trend, winds gradually shift from the
east to the south later today as a warm front lifts through northeast Illinois. Once the
front pushes north, approaching Canada, Chicago's afternoon high temps are expected
to reach or exceed the 70-degree mark Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Two consecutive days of 70 degrees or higher in November occur about once every five
years in Chicago. But if three days hit 70, it will only be the fourth time this has
occurred in November since records began in 1871. Heating systems will get a reprieve
even at night as overnight lows hold in the 50s, approximately equal to the normal high
temps this time of the year.

COLD SNAP BEGINS THURSDAY

Sharply colder air will follow a band of thunderstorms late Wednesday night and early
Thursday. Thursday's high temps will occur in the morning, with falling readings during
the afternoon. Strong circulation around an extensive low pressure area centered north
of Lake Superior will spin cloudiness and rain or snow showers across the Midwest
Friday, with a slow clearing in northeast Illinois Saturday. Chicago's highs both Friday
and Saturday will struggle to reach the upper 30s.

--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Dear Tom,
You once published a list of Chicago’s coolest autumns, and the autumn of 1871 (when
Chicago burned) was among them. Surprising, because I always thought hot weather led
up to the fire. Also, your story about Peg Leg Sullivan was interesting.
--Claire Johnson

Dear Claire,
The Chicago Fire raged Oct. 8-10, 1871. That autumn, with an average temperature of
49.1 degrees (4.1 degrees below average), ranks as the city's seventh coolest out of 137
years. That it was so cool comes as a surprise, but the essence of the disaster was a
preceding two-month drought, high winds on the fire days and a tinder-dry city
constructed mostly of wood. Mrs. O’Leary’s cow kicked over a lantern, thereby igniting
the fire--or so claimed Daniel "Peg Leg" Sullivan in questionable testimony (but, at the
time, unchallenged) that he gave at a post-fire inquiry.