Dear Tom,
We're planning a big graduation party for June 6 or 13, preferably outdoors.
What is the weather likely to be?
Michael Krainas
Dear Michael
The ability to reliably predict details of the weather beyond seven days diminishes rapidly. Forecasts in the 7 to 16 day range are best at offering general insights into the weather pattern likely to prevail, such as the probable orientation of the weather-steering jet stream or the trend in precipitation. Weather forecasts, as we move into summer, become especially tricky because of thunderstorms. These storms can be notoriously troublesome for forecasters because of the cool outflow of air they produce which all too often alters other features of the large scale weather pattern. Because thunderstorms can be short-lived and comparatively small, predicting the specifics of their evolution is difficult at longer time ranges.
Climatologically, the chance of rain on any given day during the first half of June is one in three. Bear in mind, though, that a thunderstorm usually passes in an hour or two, and rarely is a thundery day a total washout. Even on a "rainy" summer day, most of the hours are rain-free.
We're planning a big graduation party for June 6 or 13, preferably outdoors.
What is the weather likely to be?
Michael Krainas
Dear Michael
The ability to reliably predict details of the weather beyond seven days diminishes rapidly. Forecasts in the 7 to 16 day range are best at offering general insights into the weather pattern likely to prevail, such as the probable orientation of the weather-steering jet stream or the trend in precipitation. Weather forecasts, as we move into summer, become especially tricky because of thunderstorms. These storms can be notoriously troublesome for forecasters because of the cool outflow of air they produce which all too often alters other features of the large scale weather pattern. Because thunderstorms can be short-lived and comparatively small, predicting the specifics of their evolution is difficult at longer time ranges.
Climatologically, the chance of rain on any given day during the first half of June is one in three. Bear in mind, though, that a thunderstorm usually passes in an hour or two, and rarely is a thundery day a total washout. Even on a "rainy" summer day, most of the hours are rain-free.
