4th's weather here may be jeopardized by northward shift in stormy system

The latest suite of computer model forecasts--and from more than one meteorological agency--are worrisome in terms of July 4 weather here. A number of the latest runs appear to heighten concern that sections of the Chicago area is in line for rainfall Friday night into Saturday. Thundery downpours have been predicted for the early weekend downstate--part of  a swath of significant precipitation which has been expected extend from Missouri across sections of downstate central and southern Illinois and Indiana. In at least sections of that area, rains have been predicted to top 2" in the Friday night/Saturday period.  But now (as of early Thursday afternoon), several models are aggressively shifting the eastbound storm onto a more northerly storm track increasing rain prospects over at least portions the Chicago area with rain accumulations trending heavier the farther south one travels. Hitting the northward shift in the wet Friday night/Saturday storm's movement are the Canadian, European and Navy global forecast models. Less impressive are the lighter, more scattered rains projected here by the Weather Service's GFS and WRF models.  These models continue to highlight southern Illinois and Indiana as areas likely to be at the epicenter of the heaviest early weekend rains--south of a Quincy to Terre Haute line by in large.
      If you've been following our weather programs this week, you know this is hardly a completely surprise---it's been a development we've viewed as a wildcard scenario for some time. We're in the midst of evaluating the new data and model runs and will have more here and on our 5:30pm and 9 pm programs and on our WGN radio reports this afternoon--and on the Chicago Tribune weather page Friday.