EXPLAINER: November 2008 Archives

Monday morning's snow will be the final vestiges of Sunday's storm, but only the start
of what promises to be a cold and snowy open to December and meteorological winter
2008-09. While the city was spared a major snowfall as warmth from Lake Michigan's
38-degree water kept much of Sunday's precipitation as rain, colder inland areas were
whitened by the season's first significant snow. By late Sunday evening, snow totals
were in the 3- to 5-inch range west of the Fox Valley while areas closer to the lake were
hard-pressed to measure more than an inch. Even though O'Hare International Airport
officially recorded just minor amounts of snowfall through 9 p.m. Sunday, the
combination of rain and melted snow was enough to make fall 2008 the wettest on
record here.

NEXT SNOW THREAT: WEDNESDAY
Two more snow systems threaten the city this week: one on Wednesday and another on
Saturday. An ensemble of computer models indicate that snowfall in the week ahead
could top 8 inches.
Significant snowstorms in early December have been fairly common here recently with
the biggest storm coming Dec. 10-11, 2000, when 9.6 inches fell.
--By Steve Kahn, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Meteorological winter begins Monday and the season should open with a bang as the
city braces for a major snowstorm.

Sunday will begin with some light snow that could mix with rain as a layer of warmer air
moves in from the lake. How- ever as the day wears on, the storm will strengthen over
Indiana drawing in colder air. This will set the stage for a prolonged period of moderate
to heavy snow, followed by several hours of lake effect that could add several inches to
the total. In the dead of winter in a cold environment this storm could potentially
produce 1 foot or more of snow. However, factors such as Lake Michigan water
temperatures in the upper 30s and warm ground and pavement from recent mild days
will allow some of the snow to melt as it falls in the storm's early stages. This could cut
accumulations especially in the city.

NORTHERN INDIANA MAY GET BLASTED

The track of the storm through northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio suggests that the
system's heaviest snow will eventually target areas east and south of Chicago.
Combined with additional snow from lake effect, it appears that portions of north
central Indiana could eventually end up with 1 foot or more of snow.

A storm -- the byproduct of powerhouse jet-stream winds that roared into western
Canada at 220 m.p.h. late Friday -- is to spin up over eastern North America over the
weekend. While not expected to be a mammoth precipitation-producer in Chicago on
Sunday into Monday morning, it may generate the first accumulations of non-lake-effect
snow here this season. The form the precipitation takes -- a wet snow or a rain/snow mix
over at least part of the metro area Sunday, trending to all snow at night -- has not been
definitively settled. But, the potential for at least some accumulation, possibly enhanced
by lake-effect snow showers Sunday night, seems pretty solid. A suite of computer
projections places likely water-equivalent precipitation tallies in the 0.20 to 0.35-inch
range. Were that to come as all snow, it could fluff up to 1 to 4 inches. But, the first
accumulations of the season -- this one included -- occur on warm ground and
pavement amid winds off the still "warm" waters of Lake Michigan. That can cut into snow
totals -- or even lead to a rain/snow mix at times.
Snow measurements over the past 124 years indicate the chance of at least an inch of
snow by Dec. 1 in Chicago is 60 percent.
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Quiet holiday weather continues through Saturday -- a boon for area shoppers and
Midwest travelers -- but evidence grows that homeward-bound travelers may have to
contend with snow on Sunday.
A moderate-intensity storm system is to spin-up over the region. A series of computer
model precipitation estimates, as well as a variety of snowfall forecast techniques, hint
at the potential for some sticking snow. As always with early cold season systems,
precise estimates on the totals likely to occur are complicated by the warm ground and
the lingering warmth of Lake Michigan's water this time of year. But it appears possible
that several inches of snow may occur at some locations -- totals that could be
enhanced by four to six hours of lake-effect snow showers Sunday night into Monday
morning.

RAINS DRENCH ARIZONA AND NEVADA DESERTS
WHILE NOVEMBER SNOW HITS 60 INCHES AT VALDEZ, ALASKA
While heavy rains fell Thursday over parts of Arizona and Nevada, in Valdez, Alaska, a
whopping 13 inches of snow fell on Thanksgiving. As a result, 2008 ranks among the
top 10 snowiest Novembers there, with 60 inches recorded so far this month.
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

The Thanksgiving weekend is to remain free of weather woes until Sunday when an
intensifying storm may take center stage. A high of 45 degrees is predicted Thursday
-- 12 degrees milder than the popular holiday was a year ago. It's a temperature which
places this Thanksgiving among the mildest 35 percent of the past half century.

Many details on just how the wintry late-weekend weather is to unfold for holiday
travelers remain hazy. But weather history tells us December's arrival -- on Monday --
marks the start of Chicago's snowiest four months. The period hosts 93 percent of the
city's biggest snowstorms. Much about Sunday's weather depends on the future track
of low pressure predicted to spin-up over the Midwest, dropping from Minnesota into
central Illinois then sweeping northeast toward Lake Erie where it is to slow down.

CALIFORNIA STORM DOUSES THE SOUTH WITH A FULL MONTH OF
RAIN

Heavy rains totaling more than 3 inches in spots doused southern California. The
deluge flooded sections of Santa Barbara and Burbank. Phoenix recorded its first
measurable rain in 86 days.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

The persistent chill of recent days moderates only slightly Wednesday as Thanksgiving
approaches. The three surges of cold air over the past week have put November's
temperature ranking in free-fall. The month's average temp -- once the mildest for a
November in the past 31 years -- has slipped to 40.3 degrees -- 1.2 degrees below
the 137-year average. That places November 2008 among the coldest 35 percent of
Novembers on record here since 1871.

Travel weather in the Midwest couldn't be much better as the Thanksgiving holiday gets
under way. But snow may occur before the holiday weekend ends. The moderately
colder air that hits with flurries Friday is followed by a stronger cold outbreak Sunday
and Monday which could interact with a buckling jet stream and some lake moisture to
generate snow here.

CALIFORNIA RESIDENT FEAR MUDSLIDES AS FIRST STORM OF RAINY SEASON
HITS

More rain may fall from San Diego to Los Angeles in the region's first storm of the
annual rainy season than typically falls in an entire November. Phoenix will see its first
measurable rain in 86 days.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

The third cold surge of the past week -- the weakest among them -- is in control as
Tuesday dawns. The day is predicted to become the 11th in a string of consecutive
below-normal days. The latest surge's arrival Monday produced a period of early
morning snow over sections of the Chicago area with only brief accumulations on
grassy surfaces mainly north and west of the city. The day's above-freezing
temperatures melted it quickly. Weather records since 2000 indicate Dec. 5 has been
the average date on which an inch of snow has accumulated without melting right
away.

Chicago's meteorological autumn has averaged 54.0 degrees -- 3.3-degrees cooler
than the same a period a year ago. It has increased the need for home heating an
estimated 20 percent.

MONTH ON TRACK TO BECOME ONE OF THE FEW NOVEMBERS WITHOUT A
LAST-HALF 50+-DEGREE HIGH

Since 1928, an average of five 50-degree or warmer days have occurred in the last half
of November. However, November 2008 is likely to become just the 6th November in
the past 8 decades to fail to see at least one 50-degree or higher day.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

As a fast-moving cold front moves east through Indiana, Chicago will be the recipient
of cold air and snow showers riding blustery northwest winds. Early morning may well
see some snow accumulate on grassy areas to the north and northwest. Commuters
could also experience slick spots on some untreated roads as temperatures fall below
freezing. By this afternoon, sun may emerge as snow showers diminish to occasional
flurries.
Cold high pressure will hold through Tuesday, and then a slight warming should occur
midweek. In fact, Thanksgiving Day may be the warmest of the week, just ahead of the
next surge of cold air expected Friday.

STORM TRACK OVER SOUTHERN U.S.
For the next couple weeks, the primary jet stream aloft and main storm track will flow
west-to-east through the southern United States.This will most likely mean slight
precipitation and on the average cooler-than-normal temperatures for southern
Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. However, it may foretell trouble for
southern California, where recent fires have denuded ground cover, leaving the area
susceptible to heavy rains, the first of which may occur Tuesday.
--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

As winds pick up from the southwest, Saturday's nearly 10 degrees below normal temperatures quickly reverse climbing well into the mid 40s Sunday. This brief warm-up will be short-lived as a strong cold front is forecast to move through northeast Illinois early Monday, preceded by thickening clouds and rain Sunday night and followed by wet snow as temperatures fall. By midday Monday, northwest winds with gusts approaching 30 m.p.h. will usher in falling temperatures along with occasional snow showers. Tuesday looks to be the coldest day of the week with high temps struggling to reach 32 degrees.

STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
The reminder of the week should see the primary west-east jet stream flow aloft established far to the south from the southern Plains through the Gulf Coast states. Storms will track through the southern states, and while a steady northwest flow aloft will prevail over the Midwest, abundant sunshine will allow northern Illinois to warm up enough during the day to allow readings to approach late fall "normals." Computer models hint at a realignment of the jet stream the next week, giving it a colder north-south trajectory over this area.

--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Chicago-area temperatures failed to escape the teens and 20s Friday. For eight
bone-chilling hours, from 1 through 8 a.m., windchills -- reflecting the combined effect
of the wind and cold -- hovered in single digits. Highs at O'Hare and Midway Airports
struggled to 29 degrees -- far from the 44-degree normal high -- the coldest daytime
readings here since early March. Long-term weather records reveal cold air of that
intensity doesn't typically arrive for another 10 days.
The series of cold blasts over the past two weeks have slashed nearly 16 degrees off the
month's average temperature, squelching the warmest November open of the past 31
years. Six days into the month, November 2008 averaged 57.8 degrees and ranked 4th
warmest of the past 137 years. That ranking has slipped an astonishing 72 slots as
November's average temperature has plunged to just 41.9 degrees. The month is now only
the 76th warmest of all Novembers since 1871.
Flurries are possible with a weak disturbance Saturday. But Sunday should burst into the
40s before cold air hits again with a possible switch from rain to wet snow late Sunday
night into Monday. It's conceivable some of the snow could stick.
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

There hasn't been a chill of Friday morning's intensity in the more than 8 months since
early March. Morning commuters are to be greeted by thermometer readings in the
teens with wind chills ranging from the single digits to the low teens.

The week's second blast of arctic air is to reach north Florida and the Gulf Coast Friday
night -- causing the area to be placed under hard freeze warnings.

The unseasonably cold air in Chicago on Friday -- including the predicted high of 30
-- was in northern Minnesota and southern Ontario on Thursday. Highs there were
limited to the teens. Only the sunshine-absorbing bare ground this air mass is moving
over as it arrives in the Chicago area will prevent highs from being that cool here. Even
so, Friday afternoon temperatures will remain at late-December and early-January
levels.

Lake snows wind down in the Indiana/ Michigan snowbelt. Up to 6 new inches was
reported in sections of western Michigan on Thursday.

BY SATURDAY, MORE SUB-40-DEGREE HIGHS THAN ANY NOVEMBER IN 11
YEARS
Ten November days will have failed to reach 40-degrees by Saturday's close.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

An air mass likely to produce the fall's chilliest temperatures to date tightens its grip
on the Chicago area and activates the lake-snow machine a second time this week in
sections of Indiana and Michigan. Waves of snowfall from Porter, La Porte and St.
Joseph Counties in Indiana north into western Michigan could sweep parts of the
affected area for 24 to 36 hours, producing accumulations ranging from several inches
to as much as 8 to 14 inches. Unlike Tuesday's 10-inch lake snow centered in the
Valparaiso, Ind., area, the heaviest snowfall Thursday and Friday appears to be targeting
La Porte and St. Joseph Counties in Indiana and Berrien, Cass and Van Buren Counties in
Michigan.

Temperatures Thursday hover in the low 30s and may even slip a few degrees by
nightfall. But Friday's upper 20s will be the chilliest and coldest readings here since
early March -- more than 8 months ago.

CHILL GRIPS BOTH ENDS OF NORTH AMERICA

Record lows occurred from Tennessee to Florida Wednesday morning even as bitter air
sent Fairbanks, Alaska, below minus 20 degrees the first time this season.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

A new blast of arctic air is on the way -- a cold spell expected to reactivate the lake-
snow machine in parts of Indiana and Michigan on Thursday into Friday while sending
flurries fluttering in Chicago at times. But the new chill won't hit right away. Wednesday's
gusty southwest winds will help boost temperatures -- even if modestly -- sending
thermometer readings 11 degrees above Tuesday's levels.

The sprawling cold air mass set to dive south out of Canada is to send the week's
second wave of sub-freezing temperatures to the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida
peninsula by the weekend. The first wave of cold air there prompted hard freeze
warnings across north Florida overnight where lows in the 20s were predicted. Wind
chill advisories extended south to Orlando and Daytona Beach.

Record warmth continued Tuesday in the Plains and West. Chinook winds, which
compress and warm as they plunge out of the mountains, sent the temperature urging
in Rapid City, S.D. surging from a 22-degree low early Tuesday to a record breaking
79-degree high.

Other records out West included Phoenix and Los Angeles at 88 degrees.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

With less than two weeks left in November, the first of two cold blasts predicted to
sweep the Chicago area this week offered a preview Monday of early December. The
36-degree high recorded at O'Hare not only equaled the "normal" daytime maximum
that occurs here Dec. 11, it was also 10 degrees below normal and the city's chilliest
afternoon reading since 34 degrees on March 21.

The interaction between the cold air and still "warm" waters of southern Lake Michigan
(which average 46 degrees) was explosive, sending the lake-snow machine into
overdrive in sections of Michigan and Indiana. By nightfall, 9 inches had fallen near
Holland and 8 inches was down at Saugatuck -- both in Michigan -- and nearly 3
inches had fallen at South Bend, Ind. Traffic was reported moving slowly along a stretch
of Interstate Highway 94 from Burns Harbor to Michigan City due to ice and drifting
snow.

Snow showers in the Chicago area Monday were more sporadic and lighter -- but they
rendered road surfaces icy and treacherous.

UP TO 8 INCHES IN SNOWBELT LATE MONDAY; 10-14 INCHES TO STACK UP IN HARDEST HIT AREAS
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Light snow swept across the area Sunday evening, bringing Chicago its first measurable
snow of the season precisely on the date of its expected arrival. Through early evening,
areas reporting measurable snowfall included the official site at O'Hare International
Airport as well as Midway Airport, Mundelein, Downers Grove and Oak Brook.
Temperatures hovering just above 32 degrees allowed the light snow to whiten the
ground. The snow will be short-lived here, but areas to the east downwind of Lake
Michigan are gearing up for the season's first major lake-effect snow, which may bring
8 inches or more to parts of north-central Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan by
Tuesday.
The week ahead promises to be chilly with highs in the 30s most days. A brief warmup
should send the mercury into the 40s Wednesday before another slug of colder air
arrives, accompanied by second round of lake-effect snow.

RECORD HIGHS, LOW HUMIDITY MAKE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA A TINDERBOX
Downsloping Santa Ana winds gusting at more than 50 m.p.h. sent temperatures
soaring and humidities dropping in Southern California on Sunday as wildfires
continued to ravage parts of the area.
--By Steve Kahn, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

This week's weather will take a definite wintry turn as several shots of cold air descend
upon the Chicago area. The first surge arrived this weekend and will be reinforced on
Monday as highs struggle to reach the lower 30s as snow flurries swirl through the air.
The cold shot is expected to turn on the lake-effect snow machine and send frequent
snow squalls into the snowbelts of southwest Lower Michigan and northwest Indiana
where the ground could actually whiten. Accumulating snow is not expected in the
Chicago area but snow flurries should be rather commonplace this week.

A brief warm-up is expected Wednesday sending the temperatures into the 40s, but the
cold is expected to return late Wednes- day and linger into Saturday morning.

TWISTERS RAKE NORTH CAROLINA; SANTA ANA WINDS FAN L.A. FIRES

Severe thunderstorms slammed into North Carolina early Saturday spawning at least six
twisters that killed two people. In Southern California, Santa Ana winds gusted as high
as 76 m.p.h. in the Los Angeles area near San Fernando fanning wildfires. The strong
winds sent temperatures into the 90s, setting many records for the day.

It's going to feel rather wintry in the Chicago area the next few days as an early season
blast of cold air sweeps into the city Saturday on gusty northwest winds. Chicago highs
that reached the 50s both Thursday and Friday will be distant memories as readings are
not expected to break out of the 30s until next Wednesday at the earliest.
In addition to the chill, several periods of snow flurries are possible the next few days.
With the cold air sweeping south across Lake Michigan, the snow belts of Michigan and
northwest Indiana could be in for some heavy lake-effect snow as the heart of the cold
blast moves across the Midwest. After a brief moderation on Wednesday, another cold
shot will bring a repeat of the chill and flurries through the end of the week.

BOTH COASTS BASK IN RECORD WARMTH
Record warmth invaded Southern California Friday as strong Santa Ana winds sent
temperatures soaring. New records included 91 degrees at Burbank and Santa Maria,
and 94 degrees at Santa Ana.
Florida also basked in record warmth Friday with 86 degrees at Daytona Beach, 85
degrees at Vero Beach and 88 degrees at Orlando.
--By Steve Kahn, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Friday's predicted 50s won't last long. A southbound blast of cold Canadian air is on
the move beneath powerhouse 150+ m.p.h. jet-stream-level winds. The chill's arrival
will become noticeable in Saturday's predawn, possibly encouraging some rain in the
area to mix with or change to wet snow away from Lake Michigan. But the cold air's
impact becomes most noticeable as howling north winds take hold and send
temperatures into a slow, steady decline beneath wintry gray skies. This is expected to
yield snow showers at times Saturday. Weekend temperatures are to be the coldest of
the fall season to date and the chilliest since last March.

The cold blast is just one of three predicted to arrive at regular intervals over the
coming week. The second one sweeps in Monday and a third is due Thursday.
Persistent warmth aloft which induces a northward buckle in the jet stream for the next
two weeks over North Atlantic appears likely to encourage northwest winds to flood
into the lower 48 states. Thus prolonged warming is not in sight.

U.S. NOVEMBER SNOW COVER IS NEARLY 5 TIMES THAT OF A YEAR AGO

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

After shivering through the longest early season string of days in the 30s since 1991,
Thursday is likely to feel downright mild to many Chicagoans. A pair of 50+-degree
days is predicted Thursday and Friday -- the warmest readings here in a week. Gusty
southwest winds deliver the Pacific origin "warmth" Thursday. A late-day cold front
shifts winds westerly and ignites a period of rain Thursday night. But it's Friday night
when the real meteorological action begins. That's when a second cold front hits with
powerful northwest winds and changes Friday evening rain showers into a wet snow.
Forecast highs of 38 degrees Saturday and 37 on Sunday would make the coming
weekend the chilliest here in the eight months since March 8-9.

Rains Wednesday drenched Indiana and Downstate Illinois, where 1.71 inches fell at
Carmi and 1.34 inches at Mt. Carmel.

PAST 5 DAYS THE CLOUDIEST SPELL HERE IN MORE THAN 9 MONTHS

Not only has it been cold, the past five days have been cloudy. Veteran observer Frank
Wachowski reports that 4 of the past 5 days have been sunless. That period has been
Chicago's cloudiest since Feb. 2 -6.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

City temperatures failed to reach 40 degrees for a fourth consecutive day Tuesday,
topping out at 38 degrees at O'Hare Airport and 39 at Midway. It's the first time so early
in a new cold season that four days have failed to break out of the 30s, and only the
fourth time such a lengthy cool spell has occurred this early in the past 80 years.
Weather records at Midway Airport dating back to 1928 indicate the average date of
Chicago's first four-day string of sub-40-degree days has been Nov. 28. That places
this recent cold spell nearly three weeks early.

But the chill is breaking. The moisture saturated air prevents temperatures from
dropping overnight and will buoy readings Wednesday as well.

CHILL EASING -- BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY

Afternoon highs beneath Wednesday's warmth-extinguishing cloud cover won't be a
bargain -- but readings will be 10 degrees higher than Tuesday. It's even better
Thursday when gusty south/southwest winds and some emerging sun push temps
above 50 degrees. The mild air lingers into Friday with low 50s a good bet. But a storm
expected to spin up just north of Chicago Friday night circulates colder air into the area
and changes rain to snow.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Not since 1995 have three consecutive days failed to produce a 40-degree high at
Midway Airport this early in the season. Highs at the Southwest Side site struggled
Saturday, Sunday and Monday to reach 39, 38 and 39 degrees at a time of the year when
low 50s are considered the norm. Monday no doubt had many Chicagoans reflecting on
the near-record 73-degree high only a week earlier.

Autumn 2008 -- well over two-thirds complete -- has produced temperatures near the
long-term average, but 2.6-degrees cooler than the same period a year ago.

PANHANDLE LOW BEHIND CHILLY RAINS DUE HERE LATE TUESDAY

Many Chicagoans' hearts skip a beat as Panhandle low-pressure systems approach.
Such a disturbance is behind the thickening cloud deck expected to produce afternoon
sprinkles and then steadier rain toward nightfall and well into Tuesday night. Six states
-- from Colorado to Iowa -- were under winter weather advisories for snow late
Monday. Imperial, Neb., had reported 7 inches of snow by nightfall.

Chicago escapes the frozen precipitation with this system though it is possible a few
ice pellets (sleet) may occur this afternoon.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

As west winds diminish, clouds will gradually thin out this morning over northeast
Illinois. The resulting sunshine may be the last Chicagoans experience for some time. The
southern tip of cool Canadian high pressure will linger the next few days -- but
cloudiness and precipitation (mainly light rain) will spread over the area from the south as
low pressure tracks east along the Ohio River Valley. On Friday, a large low pressure
system over the Great Lakes will pull arctic air into the Midwest. Strong winds, freezing
temperatures and frequent snow showers are expected in Chicago later Friday and all day
Saturday.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTH MICHIGAN
With northwest winds whipping across Lake Superior, Winter Storm Advisories for heavy
snow were issued for Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan last night and this
morning. In Upper Michigan, Shingleton had 9 inches on the ground by 6 p.m. Sunday.
One to two inches were expected in southwestern Lower Michigan.
--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

For the next seven days a nearly stationary strong west-to-east jet stream will be
positioned from the central plains to the East Coast. As a result, the southern edge of a
cold Canadian-source air mass will sit over the Midwest. The coldest air of the season
will rest over northeast Illinois Sunday, reinforced by strong west-to- northwest winds.
More sun Monday will push readings into the lower 40s, then clouds associated with
low pressure to the south will spread into northern Illinois and probably will persist the
remainder of the week. As low pressure systems track closer to Chicago, the chance of
rain increases significantly by midweek. By week's end a major storm is forecast to
develop that will carry a cold punch that could send temperatures in a downward spiral
Saturday and bring an extensive band of snow showers from Minnesota to Kentucky
and beyond.

PALOMA WEAKENS OVER CUBA

Category 4 Hurricane Paloma hit the southern shores of Cuba early Saturday evening.
The storm is expected to move off Cuba's northern shore into the Atlantic Sunday as a
considerably weakened tropical storm. Forecasters indicate Paloma will continue to
weaken as it drifts northeast.

--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Wintry weather puts in an appearance Saturday. Chicagoans shiver in the area's coldest
weekend temperatures in nearly eight months (since March) as blustery winds limit
wind chills to the 20s.
Snow flurries will also fly from time to time Saturday -- hardly an unusual occurrence
this time of year. Looking back at 125 years of Chicago snow observations, 110 years
have recorded flurries by Nov. 15. That puts the climatological odds of flurries at 89
percent. Measurable snow is another matter: Only 55 of the past 125 years -- 44
percent of them -- have hosted "sticking" snow here.
Plains residents continue recovering from the mammoth snowfall earlier this week that
left up to 4 feet of snow whipped by 60-70 m.p.h. winds in the Black Hills.

PALOMA WALLOPS CAYMANS; HEADS FOR CUBA AS POWERHOUSE CATEGORY 3
Howling winds from powerhouse, late-season Hurricane Paloma whipped the Cayman
Islands on Friday. Owen Roberts Airport in Grand Cayman reported sustained winds of 44 m.p.h. with gusts that topped 60 m.p.h. Paloma was expected to make landfall in Cuba early Sunday and weaken rapidly.
--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

A dose of wintry weather expected to slash weekend temperatures 20+ degrees below
those observed just a week ago is Chicago-bound. Cold winds circulating around the
powerful autumn storm that energized south winds and propelled temperatures to
unseasonably warm levels much of the week will introduce snow to the local weather
scene beginning Friday night. It's only the third time this season snowflakes have been
in the air here.

The mammoth low pressure behind the jarring weather change here hammered the
northern Plains on Thursday with blinding snow riding 60 to 70 m.p.h. winds. An area
just miles from Deadwood in western South Dakota's Black Hills reported 45.7 inches
of snow while 13 inches buried nearby Rapid City with drifts 8 to 10 feet high.

PALOMA ROARING ACROSS CARIBBEAN TOWARD CUBA; LIKELY TO BECOME 100+ M.P.H.
HURRICANE

The Caribbean's 84-degree waters spawned the 2008 season's 6th named tropical
storm. As Paloma headed for the Cayman Islands, Cuba and eastern Baha- mas, the
system intensified to hurricane strength late Thursday. It threatens to become a 100+
m.p.h. hurricane.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

Fast-moving late-season thunderstorms threaten to sweep sections of the Chicago
area Thursday afternoon. High winds are common when storms move quickly and the
degree of heating and precise timing of their arrival here will be critical to whether any
severe weather watches become necessary. Thursday's storm threat is an extension of
an uncommonly vigorous late-season thunderstorm outbreak Wednesday in the
southern Plains and western Midwest, the region hit with large hail. Storm spotters in
Piedmont, Okla. reported hail the size of tennis balls (2.5 inches in diameter) -- one of
63 reports of hail filed with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center by late in the day. The
squall line responsible included some radar-scanned thunderstorm tops up to 44,000
feet.

RESIDENTS IN THE DAKOTAS TOLD TO STAY HOME; BLIZZARDS SLASH
VISIBILITIES TO ZERO!

The mammoth autumn storm responsible for the Plains thunderstorms were producing
blizzard conditions from Wyoming through the Dakotas. Gusts to 66 m.p.h. there were
behind whiteout conditions, expected to continue Thursday.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

A rare third consecutive November day of 70-degree temperatures is predicted
Wednesday. With a sharp change to colder weather predicted to begin Thursday night
and Friday, today's 71-degree high may well be 2008's final thermal excursion above
70 degrees, and Tuesday marked only the third time since 1872 that temperatures on
Election Day reached or exceeded 70 degrees. The vertical alignment of southerly winds
through a deep layer of the atmosphere -- from the jet stream down to ground level --
sets the stage for increasingly powerful winds to sweep the Chicago area. A powerful
autumn storm coming together in the Plains, responsible for a suite of winter weather
advisories across sections of 16 states, aids the developing high-wind regime here --
a windy setup that appears muscular enough to override the typical post-sunset
downturn in wind velocities Wednesday night. South exposure windows are likely to
rattle in 30+ m.p.h. gusts through the night into Thursday morning.

TEMP PLUNGES EXCEEDING40 DEGREES ARE NOT UNCOMMON AFTER
MULTI-DAY NOVEMBER 70-DEGREE SPELLS

A 43 degree temp drop is expected from Wednesday's high to Sunday night's low.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

A Chicago general Election Day hasn't been as warm as the 72-degree high predicted
Tuesday in 44 years -- since a 75-degree high was recorded here Nov. 3, 1964. That's
the year Barry Goldwater faced Lyndon Johnson for the presidency. Weather records
reveal that warm weather and Election Days don't often go together in Chicago. Of 39
Election Days since 1872, only two have posted 70-degree temps. Not only will area
voters enjoy September-level warmth, Tuesday afternoon's 72-degree high is within
striking distance of the day's 74-degree record set 30 years ago and is nearly 20
degrees above normal. The area is in the midst of a three-day string of 70s, something
that's happened only six times since the first weather observations were taken at
Midway Airport in 1928. Monday's 73-degree highs at O'Hare and Midway were the
city's warmest in a November in 8 years. Only 26 of the 80 Novembers on the books at
Midway since 1928 have managed a temp 73 degrees or higher.

WINTRY WEATHER OUT WEST HINTS AT CHILL TO COME HERE

Accumulating snow at higher elevations of 8 states out West is the first stage of a pat-
tern shift that will cool Chicago late week.

--Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune

With the warm front well to the north and low pressure in the Plains, southerly winds
will strengthen and continually pump mild air into northern Illinois today, Tuesday and
Wednesday. Chicago should experience highs of 70 degrees or higher on those three
days. Record highs of 75 degrees today and 74 degrees Tuesday are not out of reach;
and if they're not recorded at the official O'Hare Airport site, they will most likely be
observed elsewhere in Chicagoland. It has been 18 years (1990) since the last time
Chicago experienced three straight days of 70s in November.
As the low pressure system approaches the Mississippi River, clouds will begin to
overspread Illinois Wednesday.

AIR MASS CHANGE THURSDAY
Thunderstorms are expected Thursday with the passage of a cold front. Severe storms
may be associated with this front: first Wednesday in the central Plains, and then
primarily just to the west and south of Chicago on Thursday. Very cold air from
northern Canada will work its way south into Minnesota Friday. Once the storm center
finally moves northeast of Lake Superior, the southern tip of arctic air will flow into
northern Illinois next weekend.
--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Signaling the start of an unseasonable warming trend, winds gradually shift from the
east to the south later today as a warm front lifts through northeast Illinois. Once the
front pushes north, approaching Canada, Chicago's afternoon high temps are expected
to reach or exceed the 70-degree mark Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Two consecutive days of 70 degrees or higher in November occur about once every five
years in Chicago. But if three days hit 70, it will only be the fourth time this has
occurred in November since records began in 1871. Heating systems will get a reprieve
even at night as overnight lows hold in the 50s, approximately equal to the normal high
temps this time of the year.

COLD SNAP BEGINS THURSDAY

Sharply colder air will follow a band of thunderstorms late Wednesday night and early
Thursday. Thursday's high temps will occur in the morning, with falling readings during
the afternoon. Strong circulation around an extensive low pressure area centered north
of Lake Superior will spin cloudiness and rain or snow showers across the Midwest
Friday, with a slow clearing in northeast Illinois Saturday. Chicago's highs both Friday
and Saturday will struggle to reach the upper 30s.

--By Paul Dailey, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist