WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist Tom Skilling and the WGN Weather Center staff provide daily coverage of weather in the Chicago area.

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATES: April 2007 Archives

Sporadic light rain has replaced the morning and early afternoon snow/sleet mixture responsible for an estimated 2 to 6 inch northwest suburban accumulation. Atmospheric warming has successfully pushed temperatures above freezing broadly through the lowest 7,500 feet of the atmosphere and is behind the shift from snow and sleet to occasional rain and even a few possible thunderstorms. While some snow returns in the early hours of Thursday morning (early estimates suggest around 3 to 4 a.m. in the city proper), snowfall continues to shift north into Wisconsin this afternoon into Wednesday night.

A pullback in the powerful easterly wind velocities which have dominated since late Tuesday night, including gusts over 40 mph earlier Wednesday, is to get underway. Wind speeds are to drop precipitously to 10 mph or less for a time Wednesday night as the center of the huge late April storm behind today’s wintry weather passes over the Chicago metro area. In the same way winds fade in/near the eye of a hurricane, air movement slows dramatically toward the center of non-tropical storms as well. That’s because much of the horizontal air motion we sense as “wind” shifts into the vertical near the storm’s center where air rises on a broad scale. But, look for winds to return briskly before daybreak Thursday then continue much of the day.

Measurable snowfalls this late in the season is rare. On only 66 occasions since records began in 1884-85 (including today) has snow accumulated 0.1” (measurably) on April 11th or beyond. There have been only five 3”+ snows this late in the season—the most recent 27 years ago!

Snow in the city amounted to a few inches at the hardest hit locations but is melting quickly in the early afternoon hours thanks to an environment which includes above freezing air temperatures and warm ground and pavement readings unable to sustain a snow cover.

Preliminary snow totals include 1.9”at Midway Airport and 2.3” at O’Hare---a total there just 0.7” shy of the last 3” or greater snowfall to occur this late in the season back in April of 1982.

Snowfall had ended in all but the Illinois/Wisconsin border area at mid-afternoon Wednesday—and the the switch to rain was expected to continue north into southeast Wisconsin the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The snow and sleet earlier today started as rain in Wednesday’s pre-sunrise hours which fell into a dry atmosphere. Evaporation of the falling raindrops absorb heat in a process referred to as “evaporative cooling”. The resulting temperature drop shifted rain to wet snow, a set-up common in the cold sectors of late season storms. But, south winds just above the surface beneath the approaching storm’s eastern flank, began warming the air producing a northward shift in the area of snow and sleet, responsible for quick inch to two inch pre-dawn and early morning accumulation in some southern suburbs and a switch to rain there. That south suburban snow has long since melted and the storm’s “rain/snow line”---the well defined demarcation between rain and snow in large storm’s such as today’s---has been shifting north ever since. Chicago was positioned on this rain/snow line much of the morning, which led to the oscillation between snow, sleet and rain in the city during that period. A final west and north suburban burst of heavy snow earlier this afternoon reduced visibilites to ¼ mile at Waukegan, DePage, O’Hare and Wheeling before a shift to rain. Scattered thunderstorms have accompanied precipitation and are still likely flare from time to time into Wednesday night.

The period of relative calm near the storm’s center yields to the system’s cold backside NW winds which return snowfall to the area beginning in the hours before sunrise Thursday.

Tom Skilling
WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist

A major late season snowfall threatens far north and west sections of the Chicago metro area Tuesday night into Wednesday—in particular the area adjoining the Illinois/Wisconsin line and north. Sections of the Fox Valley west to DeKalb may see at least some sticking snow as well. More than half a foot of snow may be down by late Wednesday in the hardest hit areas, expected to include Rockford, Beloit, Belvidere, Algonquin and Antioch as well as a large swath to the north, extending from northern Iowa and Wisconsin. Sections of Wisconsin—likely to be hardest hit by the approaching wintry spring storm----may be in line for local one foot accumulations. Howling easterly winds off low and mid 40-degree lake waters should warm the lowest layer of the atmosphere above freezing in Chicago and its close-in north and west suburbs and keep precipitation as rain or an occasional rain/snow/sleet mixture in Chicago. It’s likely mostly rain will fall south. A switch to snow may occur all areas in the storm’s final phase later Wednesday into Wednesday night—but with little significant accumulation southern sections.

The snow threat is being produced by a major storm we’ve tracked since last week when, as an impressive central Pacific system, it was racing across the Pacific at the nose of a 190 mph jet stream speed maximum. History has shown such powerful speed maxima embedded within the steering winds which circle the planet, often spin-up major storms and that their trek across the country is capable of producing intense low pressures able to tap huge supplies of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasts at the time indicated north and west sections of Chicago area could be at risk for snow.

Accumulating snows are rare but can certainly happen in April. Since 1970, snows totaling 3” or more have occurred on only 6 occasions—most recently on April 7, 2003. The heaviest of these storms has been a 10.7” accumulation April 1-2,1970 and 10.5” on April 5-6, 1982.

An important note on the snow accumulation forecasts with late season systems. The entire environment is in a state of transition this time of year. Lake water temperatures, often critical in determining whether some storm’s precipitation falls as rain or snow, are on the rise and are better able to heat the lower atmosphere. In addition, daytime heating is far more intense in April---as witnessed by 50-degree temperatures Tuesday afternoon across much of the Chicago metro area. These factors plus warmer ground temperatures and the availability of warm air and moisture from the atmosphere surrounding spring storms, makes predicting just how much falling snow will accumulate especially tricky. Computer models can err on the high side since these factors aren’t always fully accounted for by machine forecasts. Having said that, thunderstorms are even more easily embedded in spring season snowstorms. These thundery bursts of snowfall can boost snowfall quickly in localized areas and contribute to large final accumulations. That’s what’s likely to happen near the Illinois/Wisconsin border and north Tuesday night and Wednesday.

This storm represents just the latest meteorological twist in an April which has included the coldest April 4-9 average temperature in a quarter century. The 32.2-degree average temperature during that period than a half foot of wind-driven snow.

Tom Skilling
WGN-TV Chief Meteorologist